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Sha Tin · 2025-05-04 · 05:05

Race 2

Class 5 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-04 was Class 5 over 1200m. CIRCUIT VICTORY, ridden by P N Wong and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with EVER SMART second and FLYING ROMANTIC third. The 3.6 favourite EVER SMART finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CIRCUIT VICTORY B1/TT 1.09.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · K L Man 12 13.0 1-1/4
2 9 EVER SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor 1 3.6 1-1/4
3 5 FLYING ROMANTIC B M F Poon · D J Hall 3 11.0 2-1/4
4 11 SPEEDY SMARTIE CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 8.3 2-1/2
5 7 HO HO STAR H K Teetan · C H Yip 6 26.0 3
6 13 WIND SPEEDER B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 10 19.0 4
7 2 FAIRY HORSE SB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 8.0 4-3/4
8 8 STERLING WONGCHOY B/XB J Orman · D J Whyte 14 43.0 5-1/4
9 14 CALIFORNIA ICON B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 49.0 6
10 12 FLYING PHANTOM A Atzeni · J Size 5 10.0 6-3/4
11 1 LUCKY MAN BO/H B Avdulla · D A Hayes 11 8.9 6-3/4
12 6 SUPER EAGLE TT Z Purton · W Y So 4 7.6 8-1/2
13 3 TOGEPI B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 2 20.0 10-1/4
14 10 FUNG B/TT E C W Wong · C W Chang 9 82.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT VICTORY2. EVER SMART+1.25L3. FLYING ROMANTIC+2.25L4. SPEEDY SMARTIE+2.5L5. HO HO STAR+3L6. WIND SPEEDER+4L7. FAIRY HORSE+4.75L8. STERLING WONGCHOY+5.25L9. CALIFORNIA ICON+6L10. FLYING PHANTOM+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FAIRY HORSE (13.8%) finished 7th — the winner CIRCUIT VICTORY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FAIRY HORSE 13.8% 7.23 7
2 1 LUCKY MAN 13.4% 7.44 11
3 9 EVER SMART 13.2% 7.57 2
4 6 SUPER EAGLE 13.1% 7.62 12
5 12 FLYING PHANTOM 7.3% 13.76 10
6 13 WIND SPEEDER 6.8% 14.81 6
7 3 TOGEPI 5.8% 17.18 13
8 5 FLYING ROMANTIC 5.4% 18.40 3
9 4 CIRCUIT VICTORY 4.9% 20.25 1
10 11 SPEEDY SMARTIE 3.6% 27.47 4
11 7 HO HO STAR 3.6% 27.83 5
12 10 FUNG 3.4% 29.29 14
13 8 STERLING WONGCHOY 3.3% 29.99 8
14 14 CALIFORNIA ICON 2.2% 45.08 9
FAIRY HORSELUCKY MANEVER SMARTSUPER EAGLEFLYING PHANTOMWIND SPEEDERTOGEPIFLYING ROMANTICCIRCUIT VICTORY — wonSPEEDY SMARTIEHO HO STARFUNGSTERLING WONGCHOYCALIFORNIA ICON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 137

PLACE

4 54.5

5 32.5

9 14

QUINELLA

4,9 381

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 368

4,9 132.5

5,9 113.5

FORECAST

4,9 858

TIERCE

4,9,5 9,521

TRIO

4,5,9 1,673

FIRST 4

4,5,9,11 4,369

QUARTET

4,9,5,11 112,113

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1,4/4 204

1,4/9 12.5