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Happy Valley · 2025-05-21 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-21 was Class 4 over 1650m. TO INFINITY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by J Richards, won by 3/4, with SUPREME AGILITY second and ATOMIC BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite MIGHTY COMMANDER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.40.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 TO INFINITY Closed strongly 1.40.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · J Richards 2 32.0 3/4
2 1 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly TT J Orman · P C Ng 9 11.0 3/4
3 9 ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 8 10.0 1-1/4
4 5 DASHING DRAGON Closed strongly B B Thompson · D A Hayes 12 116.0 1-3/4
5 2 MIGHTY COMMANDER Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 2.7 1-3/4
6 6 RED MAJESTY B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 1 5.5 2
7 4 STORMI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 11 21.0 2-1/2
8 10 JUMBO FORTUNE B/TT A Hamelin · D Eustace 5 4.4 2-3/4
9 3 SIMPLE HEDGE H A Badel · J Size 6 19.0 3
10 7 DRAGON STAR B/XB K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 8.7 3-1/4
11 12 COSMO NAVIGATOR Led early B Y L Chung · C W Chang 7 116.0 8
12 8 DEAL COMPLETED B-/XB H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 112.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TO INFINITY2. SUPREME AGILITY+0.75L3. ATOMIC BEAUTY+1.25L4. DASHING DRAGON+1.75L5. MIGHTY COMMANDER+1.75L6. RED MAJESTY+2L7. STORMI+2.5L8. JUMBO FORTUNE+2.75L9. SIMPLE HEDGE+3L10. DRAGON STAR+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MIGHTY COMMANDER (26.3%) finished 5th — the winner TO INFINITY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MIGHTY COMMANDER 26.3% 3.81 5
2 9 ATOMIC BEAUTY 14.4% 6.93 3
3 7 DRAGON STAR 14.3% 7.01 10
4 1 SUPREME AGILITY 10.8% 9.29 2
5 10 JUMBO FORTUNE 10.1% 9.89 8
6 6 RED MAJESTY 7.5% 13.40 6
7 11 TO INFINITY 5.5% 18.09 1
8 3 SIMPLE HEDGE 4.7% 21.32 9
9 4 STORMI 3.5% 28.68 7
10 12 COSMO NAVIGATOR 1.2% 84.70 11
11 8 DEAL COMPLETED 1.0% 97.86 12
12 5 DASHING DRAGON 0.8% 126.96 4
MIGHTY COMMANDERATOMIC BEAUTYDRAGON STARSUPREME AGILITYJUMBO FORTUNERED MAJESTYTO INFINITY — wonSIMPLE HEDGESTORMICOSMO NAVIGATORDEAL COMPLETEDDASHING DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 329

PLACE

1 38.5

9 27.5

11 70.5

QUINELLA

1,11 1,477.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 167

1,11 371.5

9,11 293

FORECAST

11,1 3,283

TIERCE

11,1,9 22,579

TRIO

1,9,11 3,772

FIRST 4

1,5,9,11 32,990

QUARTET

11,1,9,5 1,101,053

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

11/1 73.5

11/11 1,523