Happy Valley · 2025-05-21 · 19:41
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 12 | 5.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | SOARING BRONCO PC/TT K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 3 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | CELESTIAL PATCH Closed strongly XB-/TT- A Hamelin · D Eustace | A Hamelin | D Eustace | 11 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 5 | 26.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | LESLIE B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 1 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | FLYING WROTE Closed strongly H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 4 | 4.8 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | THESIS TT J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 2 | 3.6 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | LUCKY BANNER Led early TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 9 | 17.0 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | FIGOPUMPKIN Closed strongly B K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 115.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | OWNERS' PRAISE TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 8 | 42.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | GALLANT CROWN B-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 6 | 68.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | WRITTEN CASA B/XB1/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 7 | 12.0 | 15 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-21 was Class 4 over 1650m. CALIFORNIA MOXIE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-3/4, with SOARING BRONCO second and CELESTIAL PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite THESIS finished 7th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SOARING BRONCO | 25.3% | 3.95 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | THESIS | 17.1% | 5.84 | 7 |
| 3 | 4 | FLYING WROTE | 15.1% | 6.63 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | LESLIE | 13.9% | 7.18 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 7.3% | 13.78 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | LUCKY BANNER | 6.3% | 15.78 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | WRITTEN CASA | 5.7% | 17.62 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | OWNERS' PRAISE | 3.6% | 27.45 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | TURIN WARRIOR | 2.6% | 38.51 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | FIGOPUMPKIN | 1.1% | 92.45 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | CELESTIAL PATCH | 1.0% | 96.56 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | GALLANT CROWN | 0.9% | 110.97 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 50
PLACE
7 99.5
8 17.5
11 18.5
QUINELLA
8,11 145
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 334
7,11 346
8,11 49
FORECAST
11,8 288
TIERCE
11,8,7 9,832
TRIO
7,8,11 1,956
FIRST 4
3,7,8,11 7,387
QUARTET
11,8,7,3 107,750
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,9,11/7,8,11 88,397
2ND DOUBLE
9/8 127
9/11 1,155.5