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Happy Valley · 2025-05-21 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-21 was Class 4 over 1200m. NEW POWER, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by C W Chang, won by SH, with JUMBO TREASURE second and ENDUED third. The 2.8 favourite JUMBO TREASURE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 NEW POWER 1.09.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 4.6 SH
2 1 JUMBO TREASURE CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 7 2.8 SH
3 4 ENDUED V/TT H Bowman · T P Yung 3 3.1 1
4 11 AUTUMN DELIGHT TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 22.0 2-1/4
5 8 EXCEED THE WISH H L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 38.0 3-1/4
6 3 BUNTA BABY B/TT L Ferraris · K L Man 9 23.0 3-3/4
7 12 NOBLE GO XB/TT A Hamelin · J Size 5 135.0 4
8 2 RUN RUN SMART CP1/TT A Badel · F C Lor 11 39.0 5
9 9 IRON LEGION B-/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 70.0 5-1/4
10 10 SHOTGUN XB M F Poon · D J Hall 1 11.0 5-1/2
11 6 METAL KING C L Chau · K H Ting 2 15.0 6
12 5 TOP TO SKY K Teetan · C H Yip 12 80.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW POWER2. JUMBO TREASURE+0.1L3. ENDUED+1L4. AUTUMN DELIGHT+2.25L5. EXCEED THE WISH+3.25L6. BUNTA BABY+3.75L7. NOBLE GO+4L8. RUN RUN SMART+5L9. IRON LEGION+5.25L10. SHOTGUN+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ENDUED (23.6%) finished 3rd — the winner NEW POWER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ENDUED 23.6% 4.23 3
2 1 JUMBO TREASURE 20.5% 4.87 2
3 7 NEW POWER 17.2% 5.82 1
4 6 METAL KING 9.0% 11.12 11
5 10 SHOTGUN 6.8% 14.80 10
6 3 BUNTA BABY 6.5% 15.49 6
7 2 RUN RUN SMART 4.7% 21.49 8
8 5 TOP TO SKY 4.0% 25.05 12
9 8 EXCEED THE WISH 3.4% 29.20 5
10 11 AUTUMN DELIGHT 2.3% 44.40 4
11 9 IRON LEGION 1.3% 74.09 9
12 12 NOBLE GO 0.7% 135.37 7
ENDUEDJUMBO TREASURENEW POWER — wonMETAL KINGSHOTGUNBUNTA BABYRUN RUN SMARTTOP TO SKYEXCEED THE WISHAUTUMN DELIGHTIRON LEGIONNOBLE GO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 46.5

PLACE

1 13

4 13

7 15.5

QUINELLA

1,7 60.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 24.5

1,7 26.5

4,7 28

FORECAST

7,1 149

TIERCE

7,1,4 387

TRIO

1,4,7 64

FIRST 4

1,4,7,11 207

QUARTET

7,1,4,11 3,567