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Happy Valley · 2025-05-28 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-28 was Class 4 over 1200m. YOUNG ARROW, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with MY DAY MY WAY second and CALIFORNIA DEEPLY third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 YOUNG ARROW CP 1.09.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte 6 2.6 SH
2 4 MY DAY MY WAY CP C L Chau · C S Shum 12 9.4 SH
3 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 16.0 1-1/4
4 3 TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham 4 7.9 1-1/2
5 5 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 5 27.0 3-1/4
6 9 NOBLE FANS H A Hamelin · J Size 11 20.0 3-1/2
7 12 TEAM HAPPY B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 2 3.3 3-1/2
8 10 TELECOM POWER B H Bentley · Y S Tsui 7 11.0 3-1/2
9 6 KING VICTOR P J Orman · K L Man 3 111.0 4-1/2
10 8 SUPER PACE TT1 B Thompson · C Fownes 9 108.0 6-1/4
11 7 REWARDING BUDDY CP M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 36.0 6-1/2
12 11 RICH HORSE H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall 10 69.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG ARROW2. MY DAY MY WAY+0.1L3. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+1.25L4. TACTICAL COMMAND+1.5L5. CRYSTAL POWERFUL+3.25L6. NOBLE FANS+3.5L7. TEAM HAPPY+3.5L8. TELECOM POWER+3.5L9. KING VICTOR+4.5L10. SUPER PACE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TEAM HAPPY (19.5%) finished 7th — the winner YOUNG ARROW was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 TEAM HAPPY 19.5% 5.13 7
2 2 YOUNG ARROW 16.7% 6.00 1
3 10 TELECOM POWER 14.9% 6.71 8
4 5 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 10.7% 9.35 5
5 4 MY DAY MY WAY 10.5% 9.56 2
6 3 TACTICAL COMMAND 8.7% 11.55 4
7 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 6.3% 15.84 3
8 9 NOBLE FANS 5.4% 18.58 6
9 11 RICH HORSE 3.4% 29.62 12
10 8 SUPER PACE 2.0% 51.20 10
11 7 REWARDING BUDDY 1.4% 71.25 11
12 6 KING VICTOR 0.7% 149.96 9
TEAM HAPPYYOUNG ARROW — wonTELECOM POWERCRYSTAL POWERFULMY DAY MY WAYTACTICAL COMMANDCALIFORNIA DEEPLYNOBLE FANSRICH HORSESUPER PACEREWARDING BUDDYKING VICTOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 26

PLACE

1 39

2 11

4 28

QUINELLA

2,4 124

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 57

1,4 172.5

2,4 45.5

FORECAST

2,4 181

TIERCE

2,4,1 1,391

TRIO

1,2,4 385

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 392

QUARTET

2,4,1,3 5,345

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/2 55.5

1/4 34.5