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Happy Valley · 2025-05-28 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-28 was Class 4 over 1200m. BITS SUPERSTAR, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with THUNDER PRINCE second and ALWAYS MY FOLKS third. The 3.8 favourite ISLAND BUDDY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 BITS SUPERSTAR 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · P C Ng 11 20.0 SH
2 5 THUNDER PRINCE E/TT H Bowman · W Y So 3 6.4 SH
3 10 ALWAYS MY FOLKS H K Teetan · C W Chang 12 9.7 1/2
4 3 SWEET BRIAR V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 15.0 3/4
5 6 ISLAND BUDDY B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 8 3.8 3/4
6 9 REWARDING TWINKLE CP-/SR1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 10.0 1
7 11 SUPER CHARIZZARD PC A Badel · M Newnham 9 30.0 1-1/4
8 7 COUNTRY DANCER E B Avdulla · J Size 6 5.9 1-1/2
9 2 GENIUS BABY CP1/TT1 K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 15.0 3-1/2
10 12 DEVILDOM CP M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 30.0 4-1/4
11 1 O'LINER TT Y L Chung · J Richards 4 5.7 5-3/4
12 4 UP WITH CHARM B-/E1/P1 J Orman · D J Whyte 2 102.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BITS SUPERSTAR2. THUNDER PRINCE+0.1L3. ALWAYS MY FOLKS+0.5L4. SWEET BRIAR+0.75L5. ISLAND BUDDY+0.75L6. REWARDING TWINKLE+1L7. SUPER CHARIZZARD+1.25L8. COUNTRY DANCER+1.5L9. GENIUS BABY+3.5L10. DEVILDOM+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ISLAND BUDDY (18.7%) finished 5th — the winner BITS SUPERSTAR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ISLAND BUDDY 18.7% 5.36 5
2 7 COUNTRY DANCER 17.0% 5.89 8
3 1 O'LINER 13.1% 7.65 11
4 5 THUNDER PRINCE 12.3% 8.14 2
5 10 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 10.4% 9.59 3
6 3 SWEET BRIAR 7.9% 12.74 4
7 8 BITS SUPERSTAR 4.7% 21.05 1
8 11 SUPER CHARIZZARD 4.5% 22.12 7
9 9 REWARDING TWINKLE 4.1% 24.37 6
10 2 GENIUS BABY 3.4% 29.56 9
11 12 DEVILDOM 2.2% 45.11 10
12 4 UP WITH CHARM 1.7% 57.54 12
ISLAND BUDDYCOUNTRY DANCERO'LINERTHUNDER PRINCEALWAYS MY FOLKSSWEET BRIARBITS SUPERSTAR — wonSUPER CHARIZZARDREWARDING TWINKLEGENIUS BABYDEVILDOMUP WITH CHARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 203.5

PLACE

5 26

8 50.5

10 34

QUINELLA

5,8 737

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 220

5,10 124.5

8,10 243.5

FORECAST

8,5 1,693

TIERCE

8,5,10 9,257

TRIO

5,8,10 1,372

FIRST 4

3,5,8,10 2,809

QUARTET

8,5,10,3 78,195

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

12/5 42

12/8 1,078