Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2025-05-28 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-28 was Class 5 over 1200m. VIGOR ELLEEGANT, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K L Man, won by 2-1/4, with DOUBLE SHOW second and FLYING PHANTOM third. The 3.9 favourite EVER SMART finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K L Man 4 8.4 2-1/4
2 10 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 9.7 2-1/4
3 11 FLYING PHANTOM A Atzeni · J Size 6 10.0 2-1/4
4 4 SKY PROPHET TT H Bowman · C Fownes 9 9.3 3
5 7 SPEEDY SMARTIE CP/TT B Avdulla · T P Yung 8 7.0 3-1/4
6 5 EVER SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor 5 3.9 3-1/4
7 3 WINNING HEART B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 12 10.0 3-1/2
8 9 ALMIGHTY KICK XB/CP1 K C Leung · K W Lui 10 31.0 3-3/4
9 12 WIND SPEEDER B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 12.0 5-1/2
10 6 JOYFUL LIFE B/XB/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 2 9.6 6-1/4
11 2 ACCOLADE START B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 11 40.0 6-1/2
12 8 GALLANT GOODY A Hamelin · D J Hall 1 18.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIGOR ELLEEGANT2. DOUBLE SHOW+2.25L3. FLYING PHANTOM+2.25L4. SKY PROPHET+3L5. SPEEDY SMARTIE+3.25L6. EVER SMART+3.25L7. WINNING HEART+3.5L8. ALMIGHTY KICK+3.75L9. WIND SPEEDER+5.5L10. JOYFUL LIFE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick EVER SMART (29.9%) finished 6th — the winner VIGOR ELLEEGANT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 EVER SMART 29.9% 3.35 6
2 6 JOYFUL LIFE 10.4% 9.58 10
3 7 SPEEDY SMARTIE 9.4% 10.62 5
4 11 FLYING PHANTOM 8.4% 11.97 3
5 8 GALLANT GOODY 7.9% 12.60 12
6 12 WIND SPEEDER 5.3% 18.79 9
7 4 SKY PROPHET 5.3% 18.93 4
8 3 WINNING HEART 5.0% 20.09 7
9 2 ACCOLADE START 4.9% 20.58 11
10 1 VIGOR ELLEEGANT 4.9% 20.61 1
11 9 ALMIGHTY KICK 4.8% 20.83 8
12 10 DOUBLE SHOW 3.9% 25.75 2
EVER SMARTJOYFUL LIFESPEEDY SMARTIEFLYING PHANTOMGALLANT GOODYWIND SPEEDERSKY PROPHETWINNING HEARTACCOLADE STARTVIGOR ELLEEGANT — wonALMIGHTY KICKDOUBLE SHOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 84.5

PLACE

1 36.5

10 31

11 30

QUINELLA

1,10 519

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 181.5

1,11 260

10,11 165.5

FORECAST

1,10 825

TIERCE

1,10,11 14,006

TRIO

1,10,11 2,445

FIRST 4

1,4,10,11 4,081

QUARTET

1,10,11,4 73,714