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Happy Valley · 2025-06-04 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 2200m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-06-04 was Class 5 over 2200m. LEATHER MASTER, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 2-1/4, with STORM RUNNER second and COLOURFUL BARON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite MR ALADDIN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 2.18.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly CP 2.18.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 10 5.4 2-1/4
2 1 STORM RUNNER Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · P C Ng 2 9.8 2-1/4
3 7 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 12 50.0 2-1/4
4 10 GOLDEN FAIRY L Hewitson · W Y So 1 8.6 2-1/2
5 6 SUPER HONG KONG V/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 3 4.2 2-3/4
6 9 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly H/PC/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 9 3.3 3
7 5 U S S CONSTITUTION Closed strongly H/TT B Avdulla · J Size 7 23.0 5
8 2 GO GO GO PC-/P2/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 6 10.0 5-1/4
9 3 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly B/TT J Orman · C S Shum 11 44.0 5-3/4
10 12 JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 18.0 6
11 4 THE WAY WE WIN PC/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 5 43.0 10-1/4
12 8 SUPER TREASURE Led early B K C Leung · K H Ting 8 65.0 30-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEATHER MASTER2. STORM RUNNER+2.25L3. COLOURFUL BARON+2.25L4. GOLDEN FAIRY+2.5L5. SUPER HONG KONG+2.75L6. MR ALADDIN+3L7. U S S CONSTITUTION+5L8. GO GO GO+5.25L9. FLYING SILVER+5.75L10. JOYFUL CHAMPION+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GOLDEN FAIRY (20.0%) finished 4th — the winner LEATHER MASTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 GOLDEN FAIRY 20.0% 4.99 4
2 11 LEATHER MASTER 16.7% 6.00 1
3 6 SUPER HONG KONG 16.3% 6.15 5
4 9 MR ALADDIN 11.4% 8.80 6
5 12 JOYFUL CHAMPION 8.6% 11.60 10
6 2 GO GO GO 8.5% 11.70 8
7 1 STORM RUNNER 5.0% 19.86 2
8 5 U S S CONSTITUTION 3.8% 26.25 7
9 8 SUPER TREASURE 2.6% 39.21 12
10 3 FLYING SILVER 2.5% 39.34 9
11 4 THE WAY WE WIN 2.4% 41.99 11
12 7 COLOURFUL BARON 2.2% 45.97 3
GOLDEN FAIRYLEATHER MASTER — wonSUPER HONG KONGMR ALADDINJOYFUL CHAMPIONGO GO GOSTORM RUNNERU S S CONSTITUTIONSUPER TREASUREFLYING SILVERTHE WAY WE WINCOLOURFUL BARON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 54

PLACE

1 34.5

7 115

11 19

QUINELLA

1,11 337

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 744.5

1,11 106.5

7,11 449

FORECAST

11,1 568

TIERCE

11,1,7 24,020

TRIO

1,7,11 5,619

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 8,327

QUARTET

11,1,7,10 163,099