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Happy Valley · 2025-06-04 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 4 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-06-04 was Class 4 over 1800m. S J TOURBILLON, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with FIREFOOT second and KASA PAPA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite FIREFOOT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.51.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly CP/TT 1.51.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C H Yip 7 11.0 3/4
2 9 FIREFOOT Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So 8 4.4 3/4
3 12 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz 10 4.8 1-1/2
4 3 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 9 15.0 3
5 5 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H J Orman · J Size 2 5.6 3-1/2
6 1 LEAN HERO B/XB/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 1 17.0 3-1/2
7 7 FLOOF Led early TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 10.0 3-3/4
8 2 SUNDAY'S SERENADE B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 6 7.8 6
9 6 MISSION STRIKE Closed strongly B L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 8.4 6
10 4 COMET SPLENDIDO CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 3 30.0 11
11 10 GOR MO TUEN Closed strongly TT B Thompson · T P Yung 12 97.0 18-1/2
12 8 SANDMAN B/TT K De Melo · D Eustace 5 132.0 23

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. S J TOURBILLON2. FIREFOOT+0.75L3. KASA PAPA+1.5L4. CAN'T GO WONG+3L5. SIMPLE HEDGE+3.5L6. LEAN HERO+3.5L7. FLOOF+3.75L8. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+6L9. MISSION STRIKE+6L10. COMET SPLENDIDO+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FIREFOOT (18.7%) finished 2nd — the winner S J TOURBILLON was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 FIREFOOT 18.7% 5.34 2
2 6 MISSION STRIKE 15.4% 6.49 9
3 2 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 14.5% 6.88 8
4 3 CAN'T GO WONG 9.9% 10.05 4
5 11 S J TOURBILLON 7.9% 12.73 1
6 7 FLOOF 7.7% 12.95 7
7 4 COMET SPLENDIDO 7.7% 13.04 10
8 12 KASA PAPA 6.0% 16.63 3
9 1 LEAN HERO 5.2% 19.16 6
10 5 SIMPLE HEDGE 5.0% 19.82 5
11 10 GOR MO TUEN 1.1% 90.21 11
12 8 SANDMAN 0.8% 131.54 12
FIREFOOTMISSION STRIKESUNDAY'S SERENADECAN'T GO WONGS J TOURBILLON — wonFLOOFCOMET SPLENDIDOKASA PAPALEAN HEROSIMPLE HEDGEGOR MO TUENSANDMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 111.5

PLACE

9 19.5

11 31

12 20.5

QUINELLA

9,11 254.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 92.5

9,12 49.5

11,12 74.5

FORECAST

11,9 685

TIERCE

11,9,12 2,840

TRIO

9,11,12 456

FIRST 4

3,9,11,12 1,222

QUARTET

11,9,12,3 25,503

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/9 95.5

11/11 770