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Happy Valley · 2025-06-04 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-06-04 was Class 4 over 1650m. WROTE A NEW PAGE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with CAPITAL LEGEND second and TO INFINITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite MIDORI FUJI finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.41.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 WROTE A NEW PAGE Closed strongly TT 1.41.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum 8 3.7 SH
2 9 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 7 8.5 SH
3 10 TO INFINITY Closed strongly L Hewitson · J Richards 3 23.0 1-1/4
4 1 MIDORI FUJI Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D Eustace 10 3.6 2-1/2
5 2 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 10.0 2-3/4
6 4 FLYING WROTE H-/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 5 8.0 3
7 7 NEBRASKAN B B Avdulla · J Size 1 12.0 5
8 12 DRACO CP/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 11 8.4 5
9 8 POSITIVE SMILE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 12 59.0 7-1/2
10 3 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE XB/TT J Orman · P C Ng 4 44.0 9
11 5 ONE AND ONLY Led early TT1 K C Leung · W K Mo 6 24.0 9-3/4
12 11 RUN YES RUN M Chadwick · W Y So 9 91.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WROTE A NEW PAGE2. CAPITAL LEGEND+0.1L3. TO INFINITY+1.25L4. MIDORI FUJI+2.5L5. SETANTA+2.75L6. FLYING WROTE+3L7. NEBRASKAN+5L8. DRACO+5L9. POSITIVE SMILE+7.5L10. ACROSS DA UNIVERSE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MIDORI FUJI (20.1%) finished 4th — the winner WROTE A NEW PAGE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MIDORI FUJI 20.1% 4.97 4
2 7 NEBRASKAN 15.7% 6.37 7
3 4 FLYING WROTE 12.3% 8.12 6
4 12 DRACO 10.6% 9.39 8
5 6 WROTE A NEW PAGE 10.6% 9.44 1
6 10 TO INFINITY 6.4% 15.55 3
7 2 SETANTA 5.8% 17.10 5
8 5 ONE AND ONLY 5.5% 18.09 11
9 3 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE 4.8% 20.82 10
10 9 CAPITAL LEGEND 3.5% 28.74 2
11 8 POSITIVE SMILE 2.8% 35.25 9
12 11 RUN YES RUN 1.7% 59.11 12
MIDORI FUJINEBRASKANFLYING WROTEDRACOWROTE A NEW PAGE — wonTO INFINITYSETANTAONE AND ONLYACROSS DA UNIVERSECAPITAL LEGENDPOSITIVE SMILERUN YES RUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 37

PLACE

6 15.5

9 24.5

10 50

QUINELLA

6,9 189.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 64

6,10 142.5

9,10 200.5

FORECAST

6,9 333

TIERCE

6,9,10 5,400

TRIO

6,9,10 1,334

FIRST 4

1,6,9,10 654

QUARTET

6,9,10,1 19,642

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

4/6 343.5

4/9 77