Sha Tin · 2025-09-28 · 18:25
Race 10
Class 3
1400m
Course C+3
14 runners
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-28 was Class 3 over 1400m. BEAUTY CRESCENT, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won, with SOUTH STAR second and TOP TIME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite SOUTH STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEAUTY CRESCENT Closed strongly 1:21.56 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 6.3 | — |
| 2 | 7 | SOUTH STAR Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 2.5 | SH |
| 3 | 14 | TOP TIME Closed strongly K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 1 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | DRAGON JOY M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | COPARTNER FLEET Led early K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 3 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SPIRIT OF PEACE Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 11 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | YOUNG ACHIEVER Closed strongly H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 14 | 49.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | SUPREME MASTERMIND Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 74.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | WE CAN PARTY Closed strongly D Probert · D Eustace | D Probert | D Eustace | 13 | 187.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 7 | 8.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | FLYING FORTRESS H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 5 | 8.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | GHORGAN J Orman · K L Man | J Orman | K L Man | 4 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 6 | REFUSETOBEENGLISH C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 12 | 68.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | FAMILY KNIGHT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 164.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick BEAUTY CRESCENT (14.8%) won this race.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 14.8% | 6.75 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | SOUTH STAR | 14.5% | 6.92 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | TOP TIME | 12.8% | 7.82 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | FLYING FORTRESS | 12.4% | 8.09 | 11 |
| 5 | 9 | SPIRIT OF PEACE | 10.7% | 9.33 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE | 9.3% | 10.70 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | COPARTNER FLEET | 6.6% | 15.15 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | YOUNG ACHIEVER | 4.8% | 20.62 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | DRAGON JOY | 4.4% | 22.85 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | REFUSETOBEENGLISH | 3.8% | 26.39 | 13 |
| 11 | 10 | FAMILY KNIGHT | 2.2% | 45.26 | 14 |
| 12 | 13 | SUPREME MASTERMIND | 1.6% | 64.24 | 8 |
| 13 | 4 | GHORGAN | 1.2% | 80.84 | 12 |
| 14 | 12 | WE CAN PARTY | 0.9% | 111.02 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 9
Race 11 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m
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