Sha Tin · 2025-09-28 · 18:25
Race 5
Class 4
1200m
Course C+3
12 runners
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-28 was Class 4 over 1200m. PACKING PHOENIX, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won, with SPICY STANDARD second and PATCH OF TIME third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PACKING PHOENIX 1:08.69 Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 6 | 1.5 | — |
| 2 | 2 | SPICY STANDARD B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 1 | 3.1 | N |
| 3 | 8 | PATCH OF TIME L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 4 | 45.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | KING OBERON L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 44.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | RUN RUN SMART A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 2 | 45.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | RISING PHOENIX M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | HAPPY ACTION M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 210.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | THUNDER BLINK K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 5 | 63.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | CALIFORNIA BAY Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | CALIFORNIA BANNER M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 11 | 36.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | BRIGHT MORTAR C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 10 | 143.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | SEA SAPPHIRE R Kingscote · D Eustace | R Kingscote | D Eustace | 9 | 45.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick PACKING PHOENIX (35.9%) won this race.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PACKING PHOENIX | 35.9% | 2.79 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | RISING PHOENIX | 14.2% | 7.05 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | SPICY STANDARD | 13.9% | 7.20 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | KING OBERON | 7.5% | 13.40 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | CALIFORNIA BANNER | 5.1% | 19.77 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | CALIFORNIA BAY | 5.0% | 19.88 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | RUN RUN SMART | 3.8% | 26.41 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | THUNDER BLINK | 3.8% | 26.66 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | PATCH OF TIME | 3.7% | 27.00 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | BRIGHT MORTAR | 3.2% | 31.74 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | SEA SAPPHIRE | 2.8% | 35.92 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | HAPPY ACTION | 1.3% | 74.78 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 4
Race 6 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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