Sha Tin · 2025-09-28 · 18:25
Race 3
Class 5
1600m
Course C+3
14 runners
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-28 was Class 5 over 1600m. NINJA DERBY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by B Crawford, won, with PERFECT PEACH second and STRONGEST BOY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.2 favourite PERFECT PEACH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NINJA DERBY Wire to wire 1:34.35 L Hewitson · B Crawford | L Hewitson | B Crawford | 14 | 9.0 | — |
| 2 | 3 | PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 3 | 4.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 14 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 7 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | MR GOOD VIBES Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 4 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | DRACO Closed strongly L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 12 | 5.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | FAMILY FORTUNE Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 13 | 5.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | SMASHING EXPRESS A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 2 | 6.6 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | APOLAR FIGHTER Closed strongly J Orman · D Eustace | J Orman | D Eustace | 9 | 28.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 39.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | CELESTIAL HARMONY B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 1 | 7.6 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | CERVIN K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 8 | 25.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | SUPREME WINNER A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 5 | 48.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | SILVER KING R Kingscote · F C Lor | R Kingscote | F C Lor | 10 | 88.0 | 18 |
| 14 | 5 | BINGO BABE D Probert · Y S Tsui | D Probert | Y S Tsui | 6 | 106.0 | 20-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick PERFECT PEACH (21.1%) finished 2nd — the winner NINJA DERBY was rated #10.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | PERFECT PEACH | 21.1% | 4.74 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 13.8% | 7.24 | 7 |
| 3 | 10 | FAMILY FORTUNE | 11.2% | 8.95 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | DRACO | 10.7% | 9.33 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | APOLAR FIGHTER | 8.1% | 12.35 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | CELESTIAL HARMONY | 7.2% | 13.86 | 10 |
| 7 | 14 | STRONGEST BOY | 5.2% | 19.08 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | SMART BEAUTY | 5.1% | 19.64 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | MR GOOD VIBES | 4.7% | 21.42 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | NINJA DERBY | 3.7% | 26.71 | 1 |
| 11 | 13 | SUPREME WINNER | 3.6% | 28.10 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | CERVIN | 2.1% | 48.06 | 11 |
| 13 | 5 | BINGO BABE | 1.8% | 54.35 | 14 |
| 14 | 7 | SILVER KING | 1.7% | 60.25 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 2
Race 4 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m
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