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Happy Valley · 2025-10-22 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-22 was Class 4 over 1200m. LOOKS OUTSTANDING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by M Newnham, won, with YEE CHEONG SPIRIT second and WRITTEN CASA third. The 3.7 favourite KNOW AT HEART finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:09.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 LOOKS OUTSTANDING 1:09.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · M Newnham 9 9.2
2 5 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT R Kingscote · C S Shum 7 10.0 3
3 2 WRITTEN CASA H Bowman · J Richards 10 24.0 3
4 7 KNOW AT HEART M Chadwick · W Y So 4 3.7 3-1/2
5 11 MAJESTIC DELIGHT H Bentley · D Eustace 2 6.8 3-3/4
6 1 MEGA BONUS B Avdulla · P F Yiu 3 11.0 4-3/4
7 3 GASTRONOMIQUE K Teetan · J Size 5 11.0 4-3/4
8 12 PATCH OF WATCH M F Poon · K L Man 8 4.2 5-1/4
9 9 ISLAND BREEZES A Badel · P C Ng 6 16.0 5-3/4
10 6 HAPPY PARK A Atzeni · K W Lui 12 18.0 6-1/4
11 4 GOLDEN BRILLIANT E C W Wong · C Fownes 11 84.0 7
12 8 SUGAR QUEEN PRAWN D Probert · D J Whyte 1 51.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKS OUTSTANDING2. YEE CHEONG SPIRIT+3L3. WRITTEN CASA+3L4. KNOW AT HEART+3.5L5. MAJESTIC DELIGHT+3.75L6. MEGA BONUS+4.75L7. GASTRONOMIQUE+4.75L8. PATCH OF WATCH+5.25L9. ISLAND BREEZES+5.75L10. HAPPY PARK+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PATCH OF WATCH (21.2%) finished 8th — the winner LOOKS OUTSTANDING was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 PATCH OF WATCH 21.2% 4.72 8
2 11 MAJESTIC DELIGHT 15.9% 6.28 5
3 7 KNOW AT HEART 11.3% 8.83 4
4 1 MEGA BONUS 9.3% 10.70 6
5 5 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT 8.8% 11.34 2
6 3 GASTRONOMIQUE 8.0% 12.50 7
7 9 ISLAND BREEZES 7.3% 13.64 9
8 6 HAPPY PARK 5.5% 18.26 10
9 2 WRITTEN CASA 5.3% 18.97 3
10 10 LOOKS OUTSTANDING 4.1% 24.51 1
11 4 GOLDEN BRILLIANT 1.9% 53.98 11
12 8 SUGAR QUEEN PRAWN 1.4% 71.40 12
PATCH OF WATCHMAJESTIC DELIGHTKNOW AT HEARTMEGA BONUSYEE CHEONG SPIRITGASTRONOMIQUEISLAND BREEZESHAPPY PARKWRITTEN CASALOOKS OUTSTANDING — wonGOLDEN BRILLIANTSUGAR QUEEN PRAWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 92

PLACE

2 58.5

5 31

10 30.5

QUINELLA

5,10 591

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 327

2,10 327.5

5,10 195

FORECAST

10,5 958

TIERCE

10,5,2 18,195

TRIO

2,5,10 3,629

FIRST 4

2,5,7,10 3,115

QUARTET

10,5,2,7 101,561

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,9,10/2,5,10 253,435

2ND DOUBLE

9/5 35.5

9/10 716