Happy Valley · 2025-10-22 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-22 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING OBERON, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won, with STAR FIGURE second and NEBRASKAN third. The 4.0 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | KING OBERON 1:10.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 8 | 7.2 | — |
| 2 | 5 | STAR FIGURE L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 2 | 6.6 | N |
| 3 | 11 | NEBRASKAN K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 4.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | SUPER UNIVERSAL C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 9.7 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | — | 14.0 | — |
| 5 | 8 | VON BAER E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | — | 25.0 | — |
| 7 | 1 | FLYING TING LOK M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 7 | 49.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY BUDDIES K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 6 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | TELECOM POWER M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 3 | 9.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | RISING PHOENIX Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 5.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | DENFIELD H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 9 | 10.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | SUPER PACE D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 1 | 37.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | VON BAER | 16.4% | 6.08 | 5 |
| 2 | 11 | NEBRASKAN | 14.8% | 6.77 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | RISING PHOENIX | 13.8% | 7.26 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | DENFIELD | 9.4% | 10.60 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | TELECOM POWER | 9.0% | 11.12 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 7.9% | 12.69 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | STAR FIGURE | 7.9% | 12.73 | 2 |
| 8 | 7 | SUPER UNIVERSAL | 7.1% | 14.14 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | KING OBERON | 6.6% | 15.16 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | FLYING TING LOK | 3.1% | 31.82 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | HAPPY BUDDIES | 2.7% | 37.07 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | SUPER PACE | 1.3% | 74.57 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 72
PLACE
5 32.5
9 27
11 16.5
QUINELLA
5,9 362
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 106.5
5,11 66.5
9,11 55
FORECAST
9,5 636
TIERCE
9,5,11 2,934
TRIO
5,9,11 483
FIRST 4
5,7,9,11 1,104
QUARTET
9,5,11,7 28,699
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
10/5 233
10/9 684