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Happy Valley · 2025-10-22 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-22 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING OBERON, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won, with STAR FIGURE second and NEBRASKAN third. The 4.0 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:10.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 KING OBERON 1:10.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 8 7.2
2 5 STAR FIGURE L Hewitson · J Richards 2 6.6 N
3 11 NEBRASKAN K Teetan · J Size 5 4.0 3/4
4 7 SUPER UNIVERSAL C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 9.7 3/4
5 2 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B Avdulla · A S Cruz 14.0
5 8 VON BAER E C W Wong · D A Hayes 25.0
7 1 FLYING TING LOK M F Poon · K L Man 7 49.0 2
8 6 HAPPY BUDDIES K C Leung · W K Mo 6 40.0 4
9 12 TELECOM POWER M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 3 9.1 4-1/4
10 4 RISING PHOENIX Z Purton · D J Hall 10 5.3 5-1/4
11 3 DENFIELD H Bowman · C S Shum 9 10.0 7-3/4
12 10 SUPER PACE D Probert · C Fownes 1 37.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING OBERON2. STAR FIGURE+0.05L3. NEBRASKAN+0.75L4. SUPER UNIVERSAL+0.75L7. FLYING TING LOK+2L8. HAPPY BUDDIES+4L9. TELECOM POWER+4.25L10. RISING PHOENIX+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick VON BAER (16.4%) finished 5th — the winner KING OBERON was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 VON BAER 16.4% 6.08 5
2 11 NEBRASKAN 14.8% 6.77 3
3 4 RISING PHOENIX 13.8% 7.26 10
4 3 DENFIELD 9.4% 10.60 11
5 12 TELECOM POWER 9.0% 11.12 9
6 2 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 7.9% 12.69 5
7 5 STAR FIGURE 7.9% 12.73 2
8 7 SUPER UNIVERSAL 7.1% 14.14 4
9 9 KING OBERON 6.6% 15.16 1
10 1 FLYING TING LOK 3.1% 31.82 7
11 6 HAPPY BUDDIES 2.7% 37.07 8
12 10 SUPER PACE 1.3% 74.57 12
VON BAERNEBRASKANRISING PHOENIXDENFIELDTELECOM POWERCALIFORNIA DEEPLYSTAR FIGURESUPER UNIVERSALKING OBERON — wonFLYING TING LOKHAPPY BUDDIESSUPER PACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 72

PLACE

5 32.5

9 27

11 16.5

QUINELLA

5,9 362

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 106.5

5,11 66.5

9,11 55

FORECAST

9,5 636

TIERCE

9,5,11 2,934

TRIO

5,9,11 483

FIRST 4

5,7,9,11 1,104

QUARTET

9,5,11,7 28,699

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/5 233

10/9 684