Happy Valley · 2025-10-22 · 14:20
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-22 was Class 3 over 1650m. SOUTH STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won, with A AMERIC TE SPECSO second and IVY LEAGUE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SOUTH STAR Closed strongly 1:39.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 1 | 1.8 | — |
| 2 | 4 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 9 | 26.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly R Kingscote · D J Whyte | R Kingscote | D J Whyte | 3 | 9.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 2 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | TOP TIME Closed strongly K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 7 | 8.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | STAR CONTACT B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 4 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 5 | 24.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | DEFINITIVE K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 6 | 34.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly J Orman · C W Chang | J Orman | C W Chang | 10 | 42.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | ONE MORE L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 8 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | LOVERO Led early Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SOUTH STAR | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | TOP TIME | 6.8% | 14.73 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 5.6% | 17.99 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | ATULLIBIGEAL | 5.1% | 19.50 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | ONE MORE | 5.0% | 19.94 | 10 |
| 6 | 3 | STAR CONTACT | 4.7% | 21.17 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | IVY LEAGUE | 4.7% | 21.22 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 4.3% | 23.09 | 2 |
| 9 | 1 | DEFINITIVE | 4.2% | 23.92 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | LOVERO | 2.3% | 43.40 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | RISING FROM ASHES | 2.0% | 49.27 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 18.5
PLACE
4 51.5
5 12
9 26
QUINELLA
4,5 296
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 100
4,9 262
5,9 35.5
FORECAST
5,4 364
TIERCE
5,4,9 1,973
TRIO
4,5,9 483
FIRST 4
2,4,5,9 1,036
QUARTET
5,4,9,2 12,603
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
8/4 82
8/5 37