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Happy Valley · 2025-10-22 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-22 was Class 4 over 1650m. SUPER UNICORN, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won, with CONSPIRACY WITNESS second and TAKE ACTION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite CALIFORNIA BAY finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1:39.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly 1:39.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham 1 4.4
2 9 CONSPIRACY WITNESS Closed strongly L Ferraris · D A Hayes 11 19.0 3/4
3 6 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 2 6.0 1-3/4
4 1 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly H Bowman · P C Ng 6 6.0 1-3/4
5 4 RAGGA BOMB Closed strongly H T Mo · D Eustace 5 43.0 3-1/4
6 8 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly C Y Ho · K L Man 12 25.0 3-3/4
7 12 SUPER SICARIO K Teetan · C Fownes 8 4.5 5-3/4
8 7 TO INFINITY Closed strongly A Badel · J Richards 10 33.0 6
9 11 SMART TRIO Closed strongly M F Poon · C W Chang 7 127.0 6-3/4
10 10 ONE AND ONLY K C Leung · W K Mo 4 64.0 9-1/2
11 5 GOOD LUCK WIN Y L Chung · K H Ting 9 27.0 12-3/4
12 2 CALIFORNIA BAY Led early B Avdulla · A S Cruz 3 4.3 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER UNICORN2. CONSPIRACY WITNESS+0.75L3. TAKE ACTION+1.75L4. QUANTUM PATCH+1.75L5. RAGGA BOMB+3.25L6. TURIN WARRIOR+3.75L7. SUPER SICARIO+5.75L8. TO INFINITY+6L9. SMART TRIO+6.75L10. ONE AND ONLY+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TAKE ACTION (25.5%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER UNICORN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 TAKE ACTION 25.5% 3.92 3
2 1 QUANTUM PATCH 22.7% 4.41 4
3 12 SUPER SICARIO 14.1% 7.09 7
4 3 SUPER UNICORN 10.2% 9.84 1
5 2 CALIFORNIA BAY 9.2% 10.85 12
6 9 CONSPIRACY WITNESS 4.6% 21.55 2
7 7 TO INFINITY 3.4% 29.20 8
8 8 TURIN WARRIOR 3.1% 31.90 6
9 4 RAGGA BOMB 2.8% 36.24 5
10 5 GOOD LUCK WIN 1.8% 55.64 11
11 11 SMART TRIO 1.6% 64.31 9
12 10 ONE AND ONLY 1.0% 99.86 10
TAKE ACTIONQUANTUM PATCHSUPER SICARIOSUPER UNICORN — wonCALIFORNIA BAYCONSPIRACY WITNESSTO INFINITYTURIN WARRIORRAGGA BOMBGOOD LUCK WINSMART TRIOONE AND ONLY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 44.5

PLACE

3 17

6 20

9 51.5

QUINELLA

3,9 507.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 48.5

3,9 154

6,9 192.5

FORECAST

3,9 905

TIERCE

3,9,6 4,674

TRIO

3,6,9 919

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 908

QUARTET

3,9,6,1 24,382

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

10/9/3 4,282

10/9/9 3,011

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,11/3,6,9 35,192

4TH DOUBLE

9/3 360.5

9/9 206