Sha Tin · 2025-10-30 · 11:50
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-30 was Class 5 over 1200m. NOTTHESILLYONE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won, with CHEER FOR SOUTH second and DOUBLE BINGO third. The 3.4 favourite LUCKY BLESSING finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NOTTHESILLYONE 1:10.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 7 | 5.9 | — |
| 2 | 11 | CHEER FOR SOUTH C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 12 | 14.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 12 | DOUBLE BINGO M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 3 | 3.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | GLORY CLOUD A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 8 | 9.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | FORTUNE RACER R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 11 | 63.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | ORIENTAL SURPRISE L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 1 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | LUCKY BLESSING E C W Wong · W K Mo | E C W Wong | W K Mo | 6 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | EXCELLENT DADDY J Orman · C W Chang | J Orman | C W Chang | 4 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | LEGEND STAR Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 8.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | BEAUTY FORMULA Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 64.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | NOBLE GO D Probert · J Size | D Probert | J Size | 5 | 87.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | HANDSOME BLOND K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 2 | 39.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | DOUBLE BINGO | 24.0% | 4.16 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 19.5% | 5.14 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | LUCKY BLESSING | 14.5% | 6.88 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | LEGEND STAR | 12.6% | 7.96 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | ORIENTAL SURPRISE | 10.7% | 9.35 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | GLORY CLOUD | 5.2% | 19.37 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 3.9% | 25.71 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 3.0% | 33.47 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | NOBLE GO | 2.0% | 50.13 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | BEAUTY FORMULA | 1.7% | 59.46 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | HANDSOME BLOND | 1.6% | 61.66 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | FORTUNE RACER | 1.4% | 73.31 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 59.5
PLACE
3 21
11 39
12 15.5
QUINELLA
3,11 412
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 125.5
3,12 36
11,12 97.5
FORECAST
3,11 741
TIERCE
3,11,12 2,697
TRIO
3,11,12 367
FIRST 4
3,5,11,12 815
QUARTET
3,11,12,5 18,926
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
3/3 98.5
3/11 115.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,7/3,11,12 8,744