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Sha Tin · 2025-10-30 · 11:50

Race 2

Class 5 1200m 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-30 was Class 5 over 1200m. NOTTHESILLYONE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won, with CHEER FOR SOUTH second and DOUBLE BINGO third. The 3.4 favourite LUCKY BLESSING finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1:10.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 NOTTHESILLYONE 1:10.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 5.9
2 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH C L Chau · F C Lor 12 14.0 NOSE
3 12 DOUBLE BINGO M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 3.8 3/4
4 5 GLORY CLOUD A Badel · C Fownes 8 9.6 1-1/4
5 10 FORTUNE RACER R Kingscote · K H Ting 11 63.0 2-1/2
6 8 ORIENTAL SURPRISE L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 9.4 2-3/4
7 6 LUCKY BLESSING E C W Wong · W K Mo 6 3.4 2-3/4
8 9 EXCELLENT DADDY J Orman · C W Chang 4 34.0 4
9 4 LEGEND STAR Z Purton · C S Shum 10 8.4 4-3/4
10 1 BEAUTY FORMULA Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 64.0 8
11 7 NOBLE GO D Probert · J Size 5 87.0 8-1/2
12 2 HANDSOME BLOND K Teetan · C H Yip 2 39.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOTTHESILLYONE2. CHEER FOR SOUTH+0.05L3. DOUBLE BINGO+0.75L4. GLORY CLOUD+1.25L5. FORTUNE RACER+2.5L6. ORIENTAL SURPRISE+2.75L7. LUCKY BLESSING+2.75L8. EXCELLENT DADDY+4L9. LEGEND STAR+4.75L10. BEAUTY FORMULA+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DOUBLE BINGO (24.0%) finished 3rd — the winner NOTTHESILLYONE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 DOUBLE BINGO 24.0% 4.16 3
2 3 NOTTHESILLYONE 19.5% 5.14 1
3 6 LUCKY BLESSING 14.5% 6.88 7
4 4 LEGEND STAR 12.6% 7.96 9
5 8 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 10.7% 9.35 6
6 5 GLORY CLOUD 5.2% 19.37 4
7 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH 3.9% 25.71 2
8 9 EXCELLENT DADDY 3.0% 33.47 8
9 7 NOBLE GO 2.0% 50.13 11
10 1 BEAUTY FORMULA 1.7% 59.46 10
11 2 HANDSOME BLOND 1.6% 61.66 12
12 10 FORTUNE RACER 1.4% 73.31 5
DOUBLE BINGONOTTHESILLYONE — wonLUCKY BLESSINGLEGEND STARORIENTAL SURPRISEGLORY CLOUDCHEER FOR SOUTHEXCELLENT DADDYNOBLE GOBEAUTY FORMULAHANDSOME BLONDFORTUNE RACER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 59.5

PLACE

3 21

11 39

12 15.5

QUINELLA

3,11 412

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 125.5

3,12 36

11,12 97.5

FORECAST

3,11 741

TIERCE

3,11,12 2,697

TRIO

3,11,12 367

FIRST 4

3,5,11,12 815

QUARTET

3,11,12,5 18,926

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/3 98.5

3/11 115.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7/3,11,12 8,744