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Sha Tin · 2025-10-30 · 13:20

Race 5

Class 4 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. VULCANUS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with FORTUNE WHISKEY second and GLACIATED third. The 4.7 favourite DAILY TROPHY finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1:10.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 VULCANUS 1:10.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · Y S Tsui 8 6.6
2 2 FORTUNE WHISKEY E C W Wong · D Eustace 9 42.0 N
3 11 GLACIATED K Teetan · P C Ng 6 5.2 1/2
4 12 WINNING MACHINE H Bentley · C S Shum 5 4.9 1/2
5 9 HAPPY ACTION M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 10.0 2
6 10 KNOW AT HEART M Chadwick · W Y So 3 9.9 2-1/2
7 5 LOVING VIBES C L Chau · K W Lui 1 34.0 3
8 4 GIDDY UP A Atzeni · J Richards 7 21.0 4-3/4
9 8 EVERYONE'S GALLOP C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 91.0 4-3/4
10 1 DAILY TROPHY L Hewitson · C Fownes 11 4.7 5
11 7 FORTUNE WARRIOR Y L Chung · C H Yip 4 19.0 10-1/2
12 6 HONG KONG HALL P N Wong · D J Hall 12 10.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VULCANUS2. FORTUNE WHISKEY+0.05L3. GLACIATED+0.5L4. WINNING MACHINE+0.5L5. HAPPY ACTION+2L6. KNOW AT HEART+2.5L7. LOVING VIBES+3L8. GIDDY UP+4.75L9. EVERYONE'S GALLOP+4.75L10. DAILY TROPHY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DAILY TROPHY (20.1%) finished 10th — the winner VULCANUS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DAILY TROPHY 20.1% 4.98 10
2 11 GLACIATED 16.2% 6.18 3
3 10 KNOW AT HEART 11.5% 8.67 6
4 5 LOVING VIBES 9.8% 10.26 7
5 12 WINNING MACHINE 9.1% 11.00 4
6 3 VULCANUS 7.8% 12.78 1
7 4 GIDDY UP 6.3% 15.95 8
8 9 HAPPY ACTION 5.3% 18.74 5
9 2 FORTUNE WHISKEY 4.3% 22.99 2
10 6 HONG KONG HALL 3.9% 25.91 12
11 7 FORTUNE WARRIOR 3.8% 26.09 11
12 8 EVERYONE'S GALLOP 1.9% 52.98 9
DAILY TROPHYGLACIATEDKNOW AT HEARTLOVING VIBESWINNING MACHINEVULCANUS — wonGIDDY UPHAPPY ACTIONFORTUNE WHISKEYHONG KONG HALLFORTUNE WARRIOREVERYONE'S GALLOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 66

PLACE

2 99.5

3 21

11 20.5

QUINELLA

2,3 992.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 260.5

2,11 375.5

3,11 68.5

FORECAST

3,2 1,554

TIERCE

3,2,11 11,435

TRIO

2,3,11 1,981

FIRST 4

2,3,11,12 2,859

QUARTET

3,2,11,12 103,343

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/1/2 2,846

9/1/3 1,700

4TH DOUBLE

1/2 393

1/3 330.5