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Sha Tin · 2025-10-30 · 14:55

Race 8

Class 3 1650m 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-30 was Class 3 over 1650m. NEW FOREST, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by M Newnham, won, with MOJAVE DESERT second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite MR ENERGIA finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1:39.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 NEW FOREST Closed strongly 1:39.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · M Newnham 13 7.6 —
2 4 MOJAVE DESERT Closed strongly A Atzeni · M Newnham 11 5.2 3-3/4
3 8 ARIEL E C W Wong · D A Hayes 1 15.0 4
4 7 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly J Orman · P C Ng 6 20.0 4
5 1 KARMA Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 14.0 4-1/4
6 2 NOISY BOY Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip 9 20.0 4-1/2
7 14 PRECISION GOAL Led early P N Wong · D A Hayes 14 21.0 5
8 3 TOURBILLON PRINCE B Avdulla · C W Chang 10 40.0 6-1/2
9 9 CHILL KAKA R Kingscote · P F Yiu 8 23.0 6-1/2
10 5 MR ENERGIA Z Purton · D J Hall 4 2.8 6-1/2
11 6 YOUNG ACHIEVER Closed strongly H Bowman · J Richards 12 13.0 6-3/4
12 11 HARMONY GALAXY M F Poon · C S Shum 2 20.0 7-1/2
13 10 NEVER PETER OUT M L Yeung · F C Lor 3 24.0 8-3/4
14 13 TALENTS TRUMP D Probert · F C Lor 5 52.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW FOREST—2. MOJAVE DESERT+3.75L3. ARIEL+4L4. TURIN MASCOT+4L5. KARMA+4.25L6. NOISY BOY+4.5L7. PRECISION GOAL+5L8. TOURBILLON PRINCE+6.5L9. CHILL KAKA+6.5L10. MR ENERGIA+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR ENERGIA (42.9%) finished 10th — the winner NEW FOREST was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MR ENERGIA 42.9% 2.33 10
2 14 PRECISION GOAL 8.9% 11.24 7
3 8 ARIEL 6.5% 15.48 3
4 4 MOJAVE DESERT 5.9% 16.94 2
5 12 NEW FOREST 5.5% 18.04 1
6 1 KARMA 4.7% 21.45 5
7 10 NEVER PETER OUT 4.4% 22.54 13
8 9 CHILL KAKA 3.9% 25.55 9
9 6 YOUNG ACHIEVER 3.7% 26.68 11
10 7 TURIN MASCOT 3.2% 31.38 4
11 2 NOISY BOY 2.9% 33.92 6
12 11 HARMONY GALAXY 2.8% 35.36 12
13 13 TALENTS TRUMP 2.5% 40.12 14
14 3 TOURBILLON PRINCE 2.1% 47.85 8
MR ENERGIAPRECISION GOALARIELMOJAVE DESERTNEW FOREST — wonKARMANEVER PETER OUTCHILL KAKAYOUNG ACHIEVERTURIN MASCOTNOISY BOYHARMONY GALAXYTALENTS TRUMPTOURBILLON PRINCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 76.5

PLACE

4 18

8 41

12 27

QUINELLA

4,12 234.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 122.5

4,12 78.5

8,12 154

FORECAST

12,4 501

TIERCE

12,4,8 5,032

TRIO

4,8,12 963

FIRST 4

4,7,8,12 3,697

QUARTET

12,4,8,7 81,594

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

13/10/4 3,050

13/10/12 24,490

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,10/4,8,12 156,537

7TH DOUBLE

10/4 257.5

10/12 2,395.5

SIX UP

9,12/1,6/2,3/4,13/6,10/4,12 247,954

12 [M F Poon] —

3 [M Newnham] —

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