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Sha Tin · 2025-10-30 · 22:53

Race 8

Class 3 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1:39.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 NEW FOREST Closed strongly 1:39.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · M Newnham 13 7.6 —
2 4 MOJAVE DESERT Closed strongly A Atzeni · M Newnham 11 5.2 3-3/4
3 8 ARIEL E C W Wong · D A Hayes 1 15.0 4
4 7 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly J Orman · P C Ng 6 20.0 4
5 1 KARMA Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 14.0 4-1/4
6 2 NOISY BOY Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip 9 20.0 4-1/2
7 14 PRECISION GOAL Led early P N Wong · D A Hayes 14 21.0 5
8 3 TOURBILLON PRINCE B Avdulla · C W Chang 10 40.0 6-1/2
9 9 CHILL KAKA R Kingscote · P F Yiu 8 23.0 6-1/2
10 5 MR ENERGIA Z Purton · D J Hall 4 2.8 6-1/2
11 6 YOUNG ACHIEVER Closed strongly H Bowman · J Richards 12 13.0 6-3/4
12 11 HARMONY GALAXY M F Poon · C S Shum 2 20.0 7-1/2
13 10 NEVER PETER OUT M L Yeung · F C Lor 3 24.0 8-3/4
14 13 TALENTS TRUMP D Probert · F C Lor 5 52.0 14-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-30 was Class 3 over 1650m. NEW FOREST, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by M Newnham, won, with MOJAVE DESERT second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite MR ENERGIA finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW FOREST—2. MOJAVE DESERT+3.75L3. ARIEL+4L4. TURIN MASCOT+4L5. KARMA+4.25L6. NOISY BOY+4.5L7. PRECISION GOAL+5L8. TOURBILLON PRINCE+6.5L9. CHILL KAKA+6.5L10. MR ENERGIA+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR ENERGIA (42.9%) finished 10th — the winner NEW FOREST was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MR ENERGIA 42.9% 2.33 10
2 14 PRECISION GOAL 8.9% 11.24 7
3 8 ARIEL 6.5% 15.48 3
4 4 MOJAVE DESERT 5.9% 16.94 2
5 12 NEW FOREST 5.5% 18.04 1
6 1 KARMA 4.7% 21.45 5
7 10 NEVER PETER OUT 4.4% 22.54 13
8 9 CHILL KAKA 3.9% 25.55 9
9 6 YOUNG ACHIEVER 3.7% 26.68 11
10 7 TURIN MASCOT 3.2% 31.38 4
11 2 NOISY BOY 2.9% 33.92 6
12 11 HARMONY GALAXY 2.8% 35.36 12
13 13 TALENTS TRUMP 2.5% 40.12 14
14 3 TOURBILLON PRINCE 2.1% 47.85 8
MR ENERGIAPRECISION GOALARIELMOJAVE DESERTNEW FOREST — wonKARMANEVER PETER OUTCHILL KAKAYOUNG ACHIEVERTURIN MASCOTNOISY BOYHARMONY GALAXYTALENTS TRUMPTOURBILLON PRINCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 76.5

PLACE

4 18

8 41

12 27

QUINELLA

4,12 234.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 122.5

4,12 78.5

8,12 154

FORECAST

12,4 501

TIERCE

12,4,8 5,032

TRIO

4,8,12 963

FIRST 4

4,7,8,12 3,697

QUARTET

12,4,8,7 81,594

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

13/10/4 3,050

13/10/12 24,490

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,10/4,8,12 156,537

7TH DOUBLE

10/4 257.5

10/12 2,395.5

SIX UP

9,12/1,6/2,3/4,13/6,10/4,12 247,954

3 [M Newnham] —

12 [M F Poon] —

← Race 7 This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data