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Sha Tin · 2025-10-30 · 12:20

Race 3

Class 4 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. HINOKAMI KAGURA, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W Y So, won, with NO OTHER CHOICE second and HE WAS YOU third. The 3.1 favourite HE WAS YOU finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:10.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 HINOKAMI KAGURA 1:10.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W Y So 1 8.2
2 12 NO OTHER CHOICE M L Yeung · C Fownes 12 12.0 SH
3 11 HE WAS YOU Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 3.1 1/2
4 10 JOLLY COMPANION P N Wong · K L Man 6 8.0 1/2
5 7 DR GOLDEN GENERAL B Avdulla · J Size 8 70.0 1-3/4
6 2 NEW POWER E C W Wong · C W Chang 4 9.2 2
7 5 BEAUTY THUNDER H Bentley · W K Mo 11 11.0 2-1/4
8 8 DASH D Probert · D J Whyte 9 31.0 4
9 6 GIMME FIVE K Teetan · F C Lor 3 13.0 5
10 1 MARVEL AND GOLD A Badel · C H Yip 5 47.0 8-1/4
11 4 IMPENDING LEGACY A Atzeni · M Newnham 10 10.0 9
12 3 WATCH THIS ONE L Ferraris · P C Ng 2 7.4 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HINOKAMI KAGURA2. NO OTHER CHOICE+0.1L3. HE WAS YOU+0.5L4. JOLLY COMPANION+0.5L5. DR GOLDEN GENERAL+1.75L6. NEW POWER+2L7. BEAUTY THUNDER+2.25L8. DASH+4L9. GIMME FIVE+5L10. MARVEL AND GOLD+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick WATCH THIS ONE (20.6%) finished 12th — the winner HINOKAMI KAGURA was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WATCH THIS ONE 20.6% 4.85 12
2 10 JOLLY COMPANION 16.1% 6.21 4
3 11 HE WAS YOU 12.5% 8.01 3
4 9 HINOKAMI KAGURA 10.0% 10.03 1
5 6 GIMME FIVE 9.4% 10.65 9
6 5 BEAUTY THUNDER 8.0% 12.56 7
7 4 IMPENDING LEGACY 7.8% 12.89 11
8 2 NEW POWER 7.7% 12.95 6
9 12 NO OTHER CHOICE 3.7% 27.10 2
10 8 DASH 1.8% 55.32 8
11 1 MARVEL AND GOLD 1.5% 64.62 10
12 7 DR GOLDEN GENERAL 0.9% 105.43 5
WATCH THIS ONEJOLLY COMPANIONHE WAS YOUHINOKAMI KAGURA — wonGIMME FIVEBEAUTY THUNDERIMPENDING LEGACYNEW POWERNO OTHER CHOICEDASHMARVEL AND GOLDDR GOLDEN GENERAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 82.5

PLACE

9 21.5

11 15

12 42.5

QUINELLA

9,12 712.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 52

9,12 160

11,12 84.5

FORECAST

9,12 1,455

TIERCE

9,12,11 5,762

TRIO

9,11,12 686

FIRST 4

9,10,11,12 985

QUARTET

9,12,11,10 35,952

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/9 367

3/12 363.5