Happy Valley · 2025-11-12 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-12 was Class 5 over 1650m. LUCKY BLESSING, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W K Mo, won, with APOLAR FIGHTER second and DRACO third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite DRACO finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LUCKY BLESSING Wire to wire 1:39.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 3 | 7.6 | — |
| 2 | 4 | APOLAR FIGHTER Closed strongly C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 5 | 3.7 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | DRACO Closed strongly Z Purton · B Crawford | Z Purton | B Crawford | 7 | 3.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | STAR BROSE Closed strongly H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 12 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | PERFECTO MOMENTS M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 8.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | DRAGON SUNRISE Closed strongly K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 9 | 28.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | FOREMOST TEDDY Closed strongly J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 6 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | VERBIER M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 4 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | SILVER KING Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 11 | 66.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | ATOMIC BEAUTY A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 8 | 20.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | HANDSOME BOMB L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 2 | 21.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | HANDSOME BLOND Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 10 | 115.0 | 26-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | DRACO | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | APOLAR FIGHTER | 15.9% | 6.30 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | STAR BROSE | 11.8% | 8.48 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | HANDSOME BOMB | 9.4% | 10.60 | 11 |
| 5 | 10 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 9.2% | 10.85 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | PERFECTO MOMENTS | 8.2% | 12.16 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 7.8% | 12.81 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | LUCKY BLESSING | 7.7% | 13.06 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | DRAGON SUNRISE | 2.8% | 36.01 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | SILVER KING | 2.5% | 39.34 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | VERBIER | 2.5% | 40.16 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | HANDSOME BLOND | 1.4% | 70.86 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 76
PLACE
4 13.5
6 31.5
8 15
QUINELLA
4,6 188
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 70
4,8 30
6,8 54
FORECAST
6,4 468
TIERCE
6,4,8 1,692
TRIO
4,6,8 208
FIRST 4
1,4,6,8 406
QUARTET
6,4,8,1 13,379