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Happy Valley · 2025-11-12 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-12 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING OBERON, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won, with PEJIBAYE second and CALIFORNIA BAY third. The 3.8 favourite PEJIBAYE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:09.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 KING OBERON 1:09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 9 21.0
2 1 PEJIBAYE E C W Wong · C Fownes 10 3.8 3/4
3 4 CALIFORNIA BAY Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 5.4 3/4
4 2 EVERSTAR J Orman · Y S Tsui 11 31.0 3/4
5 10 SUPER UNIVERSAL C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 5.9 1-3/4
6 3 NEW POWER Z Purton · C W Chang 12 16.0 2
7 6 LEATHER GOODS C L Chau · K L Man 8 52.0 3
8 5 LOOKS OUTSTANDING L Hewitson · M Newnham 4 4.6 3-1/2
9 11 WATCH THIS ONE P N Wong · P C Ng 6 31.0 4-1/4
10 7 RELIABLE DAD A Badel · D J Hall 7 66.0 4-3/4
11 9 PROUD BOX H Bowman · W Y So 2 9.0 4-3/4
12 12 ISLAND BUDDY M Chadwick · W K Mo 3 14.0 6-1/4
11 GLORIOUS KINGDOM B Avdulla · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING OBERON2. PEJIBAYE+0.75L3. CALIFORNIA BAY+0.75L4. EVERSTAR+0.75L5. SUPER UNIVERSAL+1.75L6. NEW POWER+2L7. LEATHER GOODS+3L8. LOOKS OUTSTANDING+3.5L9. WATCH THIS ONE+4.25L10. RELIABLE DAD+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PEJIBAYE (15.1%) finished 2nd — the winner KING OBERON was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PEJIBAYE 15.1% 6.61 2
2 5 LOOKS OUTSTANDING 14.5% 6.92 8
3 10 SUPER UNIVERSAL 13.8% 7.27 5
4 12 ISLAND BUDDY 10.1% 9.95 12
5 3 NEW POWER 9.0% 11.16 6
6 4 CALIFORNIA BAY 8.1% 12.39 3
7 9 PROUD BOX 7.6% 13.07 11
8 7 RELIABLE DAD 6.2% 16.06 10
9 8 KING OBERON 5.2% 19.26 1
10 11 WATCH THIS ONE 4.5% 22.13 9
11 2 EVERSTAR 3.2% 30.82 4
12 6 LEATHER GOODS 2.7% 36.41 7
PEJIBAYELOOKS OUTSTANDINGSUPER UNIVERSALISLAND BUDDYNEW POWERCALIFORNIA BAYPROUD BOXRELIABLE DADKING OBERON — wonWATCH THIS ONEEVERSTARLEATHER GOODS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 219.5

PLACE

1 17

4 21

8 52

QUINELLA

1,8 450.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 51.5

1,8 139.5

4,8 147

FORECAST

8,1 1,192

TIERCE

8,1,4 8,197

TRIO

1,4,8 768

FIRST 4

1,2,4,8 3,683

QUARTET

8,1,4,2 115,439

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

11/1 649

11/8 16,669