Happy Valley · 2025-11-12 · 13:50
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-12 was Class 3 over 1200m. CHATEAUNEUF, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won, with KING MILES second and MIGHTY COMMANDER third. The 4.1 favourite MIGHTY COMMANDER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHATEAUNEUF 1:09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| 2 | 4 | KING MILES C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 7.8 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | MIGHTY COMMANDER A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 6 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | POWER KOEPP H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 8 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | FIND MY LOVE M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 5 | 6.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | YOUNG EMPEROR C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 3 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | FUN ELITE P N Wong · C W Chang | P N Wong | C W Chang | 9 | 8.7 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | LUCKY EIGHT H Doyle · P F Yiu | H Doyle | P F Yiu | 12 | 9.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPERB BOY L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 2 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | NOT USUAL PICK D Probert · W Y So | D Probert | W Y So | 4 | 73.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | ORIGIN OF FORM M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 25.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | BLUE ILLUSION A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 51.0 | 14 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHATEAUNEUF | 22.0% | 4.55 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | KING MILES | 19.3% | 5.18 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | FUN ELITE | 15.2% | 6.56 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 12.3% | 8.10 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | FIND MY LOVE | 7.0% | 14.29 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | LUCKY EIGHT | 5.1% | 19.63 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | POWER KOEPP | 4.3% | 23.43 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | ORIGIN OF FORM | 3.7% | 27.14 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPERB BOY | 3.7% | 27.29 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | BLUE ILLUSION | 3.3% | 30.66 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | YOUNG EMPEROR | 2.9% | 34.06 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | NOT USUAL PICK | 1.2% | 80.94 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 50.5
PLACE
1 21
4 20.5
8 16
QUINELLA
1,4 201.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 69
1,8 55
4,8 57
FORECAST
1,4 371
TIERCE
1,4,8 1,257
TRIO
1,4,8 192
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 498
QUARTET
1,4,8,2 10,158
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/1,4,8 19,633
6TH DOUBLE
8/1 1,341
8/4 248.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,8,11/1,4,8/1,4,8 1,386,496
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,8,11/1,4,8/Any Combination 27,729