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Happy Valley · 2025-11-12 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 1800m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-12 was Class 3 over 1800m. AWESOME FLUKE, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by P F Yiu, won, with SKY VINO second and LIVEANDLETLIVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite WROTE A NEW PAGE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1:49.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 AWESOME FLUKE Closed strongly 1:49.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · P F Yiu 2 30.0
2 11 SKY VINO Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 3.3 SH
3 7 LIVEANDLETLIVE Led early Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 5.2 N
4 12 STAR MAC Closed strongly R Kingscote · D A Hayes 12 12.0 N
5 5 A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 10 16.0 N
6 4 WROTE A NEW PAGE J McDonald · C S Shum 7 3.0 1/2
7 2 EXCELLENCE VALUE Closed strongly Z Purton · M Newnham 11 9.3 3/4
8 6 ATULLIBIGEAL H Bowman · D J Hall 5 27.0 2-3/4
9 9 AESTHETICISM L Ferraris · P C Ng 4 38.0 3
10 3 NOBLE PURSUIT K C Leung · C Fownes 9 45.0 3-1/4
11 8 ROMANTIC LAOS C L Chau · W K Mo 8 30.0 3-3/4
3 FLAMINGO TRILLION K C Leung · F C Lor
10 CHARITY GAIN L Hewitson · D Eustace

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AWESOME FLUKE2. SKY VINO+0.1L3. LIVEANDLETLIVE+0.05L4. STAR MAC+0.05L5. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+0.05L6. WROTE A NEW PAGE+0.5L7. EXCELLENCE VALUE+0.75L8. ATULLIBIGEAL+2.75L9. AESTHETICISM+3L10. NOBLE PURSUIT+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick WROTE A NEW PAGE (26.4%) finished 6th — the winner AWESOME FLUKE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 WROTE A NEW PAGE 26.4% 3.78 6
2 7 LIVEANDLETLIVE 18.5% 5.39 3
3 11 SKY VINO 13.0% 7.70 2
4 2 EXCELLENCE VALUE 12.4% 8.08 7
5 5 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 5.6% 17.92 5
6 6 ATULLIBIGEAL 5.5% 18.20 8
7 12 STAR MAC 4.4% 22.57 4
8 1 AWESOME FLUKE 4.3% 23.46 1
9 3 NOBLE PURSUIT 4.2% 24.09 10
10 9 AESTHETICISM 2.9% 34.39 9
11 8 ROMANTIC LAOS 2.8% 35.33 11
WROTE A NEW PAGELIVEANDLETLIVESKY VINOEXCELLENCE VALUEA AMERIC TE SPECSOATULLIBIGEALSTAR MACAWESOME FLUKE — wonNOBLE PURSUITAESTHETICISMROMANTIC LAOS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 309

PLACE

1 60

7 18

11 15

QUINELLA

1,11 478

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 162.5

1,11 146.5

7,11 34

FORECAST

1,11 1,640

TIERCE

1,11,7 6,662

TRIO

1,7,11 673

FIRST 4

1,7,11,12 1,889

QUARTET

1,11,7,12 72,744

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 2,278.5

1/11 58