Happy Valley · 2025-11-12 · 20:11
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly 1:40.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 7 | 16.0 | — |
| 2 | 6 | CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 4.4 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | THESIS Closed strongly J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 12 | 43.0 | HD |
| 4 | 5 | TAKE ACTION Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 9 | 4.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly J McDonald · P C Ng | J McDonald | P C Ng | 11 | 4.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | DASHING DRAGON Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 5 | 50.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | SETANTA L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 4.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | GAMEPLAYER ELITE H Doyle · C H Yip | H Doyle | C H Yip | 6 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | PRINCE ALEX H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 4 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | JUSTIFY YOURSELF C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 1 | 43.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | CHARMING STEED Led early K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 10 | 30.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | GLORIOUS RYDER L Hewitson · D Eustace | L Hewitson | D Eustace | 8 | 22.0 | 11 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-12 was Class 4 over 1650m. TURIN WARRIOR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K L Man, won, with CAN'T GO WONG second and THESIS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite CAN'T GO WONG finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PRINCE ALEX | 17.3% | 5.78 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | TAKE ACTION | 14.7% | 6.82 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | QUANTUM PATCH | 12.8% | 7.79 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | GAMEPLAYER ELITE | 11.7% | 8.56 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | SETANTA | 10.4% | 9.62 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | CAN'T GO WONG | 8.7% | 11.51 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | TURIN WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.53 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | JUSTIFY YOURSELF | 4.9% | 20.23 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | THESIS | 4.5% | 22.10 | 3 |
| 10 | 10 | GLORIOUS RYDER | 4.0% | 24.84 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | CHARMING STEED | 3.0% | 33.23 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | DASHING DRAGON | 2.5% | 39.29 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 160
PLACE
2 82.5
6 19
8 42
QUINELLA
6,8 344.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 219.5
2,8 642
6,8 97
FORECAST
8,6 833
TIERCE
8,6,2 16,419
TRIO
2,6,8 3,066
FIRST 4
2,5,6,8 3,913
QUARTET
8,6,2,5 125,060
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
2/6 123
2/8 1,123.5