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Sha Tin · 2025-11-30 · 06:20

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. MAJESTIC VALOUR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won, with EVER LUCK second and LEADING AGILITY third. The 1.5 favourite EVER LUCK finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:08.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MAJESTIC VALOUR 1:08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 6 5.7
2 1 EVER LUCK J Orman · M Newnham 1 1.5 1-3/4
3 6 LEADING AGILITY M Chadwick · W K Mo 11 47.0 3-1/2
4 8 ROBOT STAR C L Chau · K L Man 2 8.0 3-1/2
5 9 STRAIGHT TO GLORY K C Leung · C W Chang 19.0
5 11 ENJOY GOLF H Bentley · F C Lor 14.0
7 12 I P O BROS M F Poon · Y S Tsui 8 87.0 5
8 3 GOLDEN DREAM M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 41.0 5-1/4
9 4 GOLDEN TRIUMPH K Teetan · D Eustace 9 29.0 5-1/4
10 2 CROSSBORDERDUDE B Avdulla · J Size 10 45.0 6-1/4
11 5 JOY CAPITAL C Y Ho · W Y So 3 36.0 9-1/2
12 10 CONRAD THE GREAT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 134.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAJESTIC VALOUR2. EVER LUCK+1.75L3. LEADING AGILITY+3.5L4. ROBOT STAR+3.5L7. I P O BROS+5L8. GOLDEN DREAM+5.25L9. GOLDEN TRIUMPH+5.25L10. CROSSBORDERDUDE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick EVER LUCK (34.8%) finished 2nd — the winner MAJESTIC VALOUR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 EVER LUCK 34.8% 2.87 2
2 7 MAJESTIC VALOUR 23.8% 4.19 1
3 9 STRAIGHT TO GLORY 13.2% 7.56 5
4 11 ENJOY GOLF 5.7% 17.67 5
5 5 JOY CAPITAL 4.3% 23.05 11
6 6 LEADING AGILITY 3.9% 25.88 3
7 8 ROBOT STAR 3.5% 28.35 4
8 2 CROSSBORDERDUDE 3.1% 32.73 10
9 4 GOLDEN TRIUMPH 2.9% 34.88 9
10 3 GOLDEN DREAM 2.4% 42.07 8
11 12 I P O BROS 1.6% 60.73 7
12 10 CONRAD THE GREAT 0.8% 125.33 12
EVER LUCKMAJESTIC VALOUR — wonSTRAIGHT TO GLORYENJOY GOLFJOY CAPITALLEADING AGILITYROBOT STARCROSSBORDERDUDEGOLDEN TRIUMPHGOLDEN DREAMI P O BROSCONRAD THE GREAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 57

PLACE

1 11.5

6 89

7 17.5

QUINELLA

1,7 44

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 107

1,7 22.5

6,7 229

FORECAST

7,1 131

TIERCE

7,1,6 2,072

TRIO

1,6,7 333

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 436

QUARTET

7,1,6,8 10,579

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/1,6,7 4,538

3RD DOUBLE

4/1 21

4/7 440.5