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Sha Tin · 2025-11-30 · 05:50

Race 3

Class 4 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-30 was Class 4 over 1200m. DAY DAY VICTORY, ridden by A Badel and trained by C W Chang, won, with GLACIATED second and THUNDER PRINCE third. The 3.6 favourite GLACIATED finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:08.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DAY DAY VICTORY 1:08.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C W Chang 10 7.4
2 9 GLACIATED M Guyon · P C Ng 9 3.6 1-3/4
3 3 THUNDER PRINCE H Bowman · J Richards 4 7.0 2-1/2
4 12 WINNING MACHINE H Bentley · C S Shum 12 4.5 4-1/4
5 7 KING DANCE C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 32.0 4-1/4
6 2 REZEKI J McDonald · D J Hall 6 10.0 5-3/4
7 10 ROBOT KNIGHT H Doyle · K L Man 8 7.7 8-1/2
8 1 SHINYU KOKOROE D Probert · B Crawford 11 22.0 9-1/4
9 5 WINNING CIGAR K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 36.0 14
10 6 GIMME FIVE K Teetan · F C Lor 2 12.0 15-1/4
11 11 SUGAR QUEEN PRAWN M L Yeung · D J Whyte 7 83.0 16-1/2
12 8 BILLION TWO R Kingscote · K H Ting 5 74.0 21-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DAY DAY VICTORY2. GLACIATED+1.75L3. THUNDER PRINCE+2.5L4. WINNING MACHINE+4.25L5. KING DANCE+4.25L6. REZEKI+5.75L7. ROBOT KNIGHT+8.5L8. SHINYU KOKOROE+9.25L9. WINNING CIGAR+14L10. GIMME FIVE+15.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick THUNDER PRINCE (24.5%) finished 3rd — the winner DAY DAY VICTORY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 THUNDER PRINCE 24.5% 4.08 3
2 9 GLACIATED 18.7% 5.34 2
3 6 GIMME FIVE 12.5% 8.03 10
4 2 REZEKI 11.4% 8.75 6
5 10 ROBOT KNIGHT 8.6% 11.66 7
6 4 DAY DAY VICTORY 7.9% 12.63 1
7 12 WINNING MACHINE 7.9% 12.69 4
8 7 KING DANCE 2.5% 40.14 5
9 1 SHINYU KOKOROE 1.9% 51.30 8
10 11 SUGAR QUEEN PRAWN 1.4% 69.97 11
11 5 WINNING CIGAR 1.4% 70.53 9
12 8 BILLION TWO 1.2% 82.73 12
THUNDER PRINCEGLACIATEDGIMME FIVEREZEKIROBOT KNIGHTDAY DAY VICTORY — wonWINNING MACHINEKING DANCESHINYU KOKOROESUGAR QUEEN PRAWNWINNING CIGARBILLION TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 74.5

PLACE

3 22

4 23

9 15.5

QUINELLA

4,9 144

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 84.5

3,9 54.5

4,9 55.5

FORECAST

4,9 345

TIERCE

4,9,3 1,374

TRIO

3,4,9 233

FIRST 4

3,4,9,12 281

QUARTET

4,9,3,12 6,664

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/4 1,248

9/9 117