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Sha Tin · 2026-01-01 · 04:31

Race 1

Class 5 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2026-01-01 was Class 5 over 1600m. IRON LEGION, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won, with HARRY'S HERO second and DRACO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite HARRY'S HERO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:35.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 IRON LEGION Closed strongly H/TT 1:35.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 13.0
2 13 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly P-/H2 A Badel · P F Yiu 2 3.8 SH
3 8 DRACO Closed strongly H-/XB L Ferraris · B Crawford 8 5.2 N
4 6 WINDICATOR FAMILY Closed strongly V Z Purton · D J Hall 14 12.0 1/2
5 2 JOLLY JUMPER BO/TT B Avdulla · W K Mo 9 6.4 1/2
6 14 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly V H Bentley · J Richards 7 22.0 3/4
7 3 PANDA LEGEND V/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 4 7.7 3/4
8 9 DRAGON SUNRISE Closed strongly P/XB D Probert · K W Lui 6 22.0 1-3/4
9 5 SMART TRIO V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 1 34.0 7-1/4
10 11 ISLAND GOLDEN B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 13 74.0 8
11 10 GANGNAM STAR TT K Teetan · P C Ng 5 10.0 10-3/4
12 7 SHINE BRIGHT Led early B J Orman · C H Yip 3 20.0 15
13 1 SMILING EMPEROR V/XB R Kingscote · K H Ting 11 44.0 15-1/4
14 12 SILVER KING H/XB/TT H T Mo · F C Lor 12 61.0 20
0 SUPREME WINNER CP2/SR2 · D J Whyte
0 COSMO LIGHT P-/TT- · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. IRON LEGION2. HARRY'S HERO+0.1L3. DRACO+0.05L4. WINDICATOR FAMILY+0.5L5. JOLLY JUMPER+0.5L6. STRONGEST BOY+0.75L7. PANDA LEGEND+0.75L8. DRAGON SUNRISE+1.75L9. SMART TRIO+7.25L10. ISLAND GOLDEN+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DRACO (21.3%) finished 3rd — the winner IRON LEGION was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 DRACO 21.3% 4.70 3
2 13 HARRY'S HERO 12.8% 7.81 2
3 10 GANGNAM STAR 12.1% 8.29 11
4 6 WINDICATOR FAMILY 11.2% 8.95 4
5 3 PANDA LEGEND 9.2% 10.89 7
6 4 IRON LEGION 5.9% 16.97 1
7 11 ISLAND GOLDEN 5.2% 19.26 10
8 14 STRONGEST BOY 4.9% 20.21 6
9 9 DRAGON SUNRISE 4.2% 23.77 8
10 7 SHINE BRIGHT 3.8% 26.10 12
11 12 SILVER KING 2.7% 36.69 14
12 5 SMART TRIO 2.4% 42.52 9
13 1 SMILING EMPEROR 2.2% 45.26 13
14 2 JOLLY JUMPER 2.1% 46.73 5
DRACOHARRY'S HEROGANGNAM STARWINDICATOR FAMILYPANDA LEGENDIRON LEGION — wonISLAND GOLDENSTRONGEST BOYDRAGON SUNRISESHINE BRIGHTSILVER KINGSMART TRIOSMILING EMPERORJOLLY JUMPER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 131.5

PLACE

4 43

8 19.5

13 16

QUINELLA

4,13 325

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 129

4,13 109

8,13 47

FORECAST

4,13 738

TIERCE

4,13,8 3,607

TRIO

4,8,13 566

FIRST 4

4,6,8,13 1,768

QUARTET

4,13,8,6 44,458