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Sha Tin · 2026-01-01 · 05:05

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2026-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m. JOY CAPITAL, ridden by J Orman and trained by W Y So, won, with SEA SAPPHIRE second and BIGTIME GENERATION third. The 2.6 favourite PRESTIGE HALL finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1:10.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 JOY CAPITAL 1:10.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · W Y So 9 48.0
2 13 SEA SAPPHIRE B-/TT M Guyon · D Eustace 6 17.0 SH
3 2 BIGTIME GENERATION XB2/TT- M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 35.0 SH
4 14 CIRCUIT DUFFY V M L Yeung · F C Lor 5 121.0 N
5 12 WINNING CHAMPION TT H Bentley · C S Shum 10 17.0 N
6 8 PRESTIGE HALL B Avdulla · D J Hall 1 2.6 1/2
7 11 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT A Badel · M Newnham 4 15.0 1/2
8 9 WATCH THIS ONE V/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 13 46.0 1-1/4
9 1 MEOWTH CP/SR/TT C L Chau · W K Mo 12 4.3 1-3/4
10 7 STORMY KNIGHT H Bowman · D A Hayes 14 63.0 1-3/4
11 6 POWER PATCH K C Leung · K L Man 11 82.0 2
12 10 BRAVE WIN CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 22.0 2
13 3 KING OBERON B L Ferraris · D J Whyte 8 13.0 2-1/2
14 4 BEAUTY GEMINI TT1 Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 5.0 5
0 LEAN MASTER B/TT · C H Yip
0 COUNTRY DANCER E · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOY CAPITAL2. SEA SAPPHIRE+0.1L3. BIGTIME GENERATION+0.1L4. CIRCUIT DUFFY+0.05L5. WINNING CHAMPION+0.05L6. PRESTIGE HALL+0.5L7. SAME TO YOU+0.5L8. WATCH THIS ONE+1.25L9. MEOWTH+1.75L10. STORMY KNIGHT+1.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BEAUTY GEMINI (26.3%) finished 14th — the winner JOY CAPITAL was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BEAUTY GEMINI 26.3% 3.80 14
2 8 PRESTIGE HALL 13.5% 7.41 6
3 1 MEOWTH 12.3% 8.14 9
4 3 KING OBERON 11.1% 9.04 13
5 10 BRAVE WIN 7.3% 13.78 12
6 11 SAME TO YOU 6.2% 16.05 7
7 12 WINNING CHAMPION 4.7% 21.37 5
8 6 POWER PATCH 4.2% 23.84 11
9 7 STORMY KNIGHT 3.7% 26.99 10
10 13 SEA SAPPHIRE 3.3% 30.26 2
11 9 WATCH THIS ONE 2.6% 38.41 8
12 2 BIGTIME GENERATION 1.8% 56.62 3
13 5 JOY CAPITAL 1.6% 60.63 1
14 14 CIRCUIT DUFFY 1.4% 70.17 4
BEAUTY GEMINIPRESTIGE HALLMEOWTHKING OBERONBRAVE WINSAME TO YOUWINNING CHAMPIONPOWER PATCHSTORMY KNIGHTSEA SAPPHIREWATCH THIS ONEBIGTIME GENERATIONJOY CAPITAL — wonCIRCUIT DUFFY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 489.5

PLACE

2 71.5

5 101

13 42.5

QUINELLA

5,13 3,081

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 1,506

2,13 693

5,13 850

FORECAST

5,13 6,233

TIERCE

5,13,2 238,439

TRIO

2,5,13 28,825

FIRST 4

2,5,13,14 77,624

QUARTET

5,13,2,14 1,853,841

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/5 11,032

4/13 297