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Sha Tin · 2026-01-01 · 09:21

Race 10

Class 3 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2026-01-01 was Class 3 over 1400m. SIX PACK, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won, with KA YING ATTACK second and GHORGAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite WITH A SMILE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:21.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SIX PACK Closed strongly B 1:21.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 7.4
2 5 KA YING ATTACK Led early B M F Poon · D J Hall 4 5.8 N
3 11 GHORGAN Closed strongly H/TT M Guyon · K L Man 9 14.0 1-1/2
4 9 WITH A SMILE TT Z Purton · W Y So 1 2.4 2-1/4
5 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly D B McMonagle · J Size 12 16.0 2-1/2
6 7 GUMMY GUMMY CP1 R Kingscote · C W Chang 8 86.0 4-1/2
7 6 CHARMING LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 18.0 4-1/2
8 8 KEEN MOLLY Closed strongly TT K Teetan · D Eustace 10 25.0 4-3/4
9 10 ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE A Atzeni · M Newnham 7 22.0 7
10 13 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS XB H Bentley · B Crawford 3 7.0 7-1/4
11 14 VERY GRATEFUL CP-/H-/B2/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 14 58.0 7-1/2
12 4 CLASS Closed strongly B-/XB-/TT- C Y Ho · P F Yiu 11 42.0
12 12 LUCKY TOGETHER Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor 6 76.0
14 2 NATURAL NUMBERS B- B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 13 98.0 8-1/2
0 NOVA KNIGHT CP1 · D A Hayes
0 THRIVING BROTHERS TT M Chadwick · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIX PACK2. KA YING ATTACK+0.05L3. GHORGAN+1.5L4. WITH A SMILE+2.25L5. BEAUTY ALLIANCE+2.5L6. GUMMY GUMMY+4.5L7. CHARMING LEGEND+4.5L8. KEEN MOLLY+4.75L9. ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE+7L10. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick WITH A SMILE (38.0%) finished 4th — the winner SIX PACK was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 WITH A SMILE 38.0% 2.63 4
2 8 KEEN MOLLY 9.2% 10.93 8
3 3 SIX PACK 8.7% 11.47 1
4 4 CLASS 6.7% 14.98 12
5 5 KA YING ATTACK 5.9% 16.89 2
6 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 5.3% 18.81 5
7 13 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 5.2% 19.13 10
8 11 GHORGAN 5.0% 19.81 3
9 6 CHARMING LEGEND 4.6% 21.97 7
10 10 ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE 4.2% 23.62 9
11 14 VERY GRATEFUL 2.5% 40.34 11
12 2 NATURAL NUMBERS 2.2% 46.40 14
13 7 GUMMY GUMMY 1.7% 58.55 6
14 12 LUCKY TOGETHER 0.9% 117.35 12
WITH A SMILEKEEN MOLLYSIX PACK — wonCLASSKA YING ATTACKBEAUTY ALLIANCEEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSGHORGANCHARMING LEGENDARMOR GOLDEN EAGLEVERY GRATEFULNATURAL NUMBERSGUMMY GUMMYLUCKY TOGETHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 74.5

PLACE

3 21.5

5 20

11 36.5

QUINELLA

3,5 203.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 66.5

3,11 150

5,11 129

FORECAST

3,5 457

TIERCE

3,5,11 4,141

TRIO

3,5,11 696

FIRST 4

3,5,9,11 333

QUARTET

3,5,11,9 10,651

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

14/3 234

14/5 42.5