Sha Tin · 2026-01-25 · 04:30
PENIAPHOBIA HANDICAP
Race 1
Race 1 ("PENIAPHOBIA HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-25 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GOLD PATCH, ridden by J McDonald and trained by K W Lui, won, with SPARKLING FELLOW second and YEE CHEONG GLORY third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.
Track detail
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GOLD PATCH 0:56.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · K W Lui | J McDonald | K W Lui | 11 | 1.5 | — |
| 2 | 2 | SPARKLING FELLOW Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 6 | 6.7 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | YEE CHEONG GLORY CP1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 7 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | ENJOY GOLF B2 H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 9 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | LEADING DRAGON K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 1 | 65.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | SPICY SPEEDY C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 10 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | SKY CAP B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 5 | 29.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | LIVE WIRE XB M Guyon · D J Whyte | M Guyon | D J Whyte | 12 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | VIVA BOSS K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 120.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | BULLISH PRIDE H-/TT- A Atzeni · B Crawford | A Atzeni | B Crawford | 3 | 94.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | TOP THRONE B-/XB1/CP2/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 2 | 34.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 7 | BEAUTY GEMINI TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 4 | 118.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | FORZA LEADER TT R Kingscote · Y S Tsui | R Kingscote | Y S Tsui | 14 | 91.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG TALENTS M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 13 | 41.0 | 14-1/2 |
| — | 0 | SPICY BONUS H1/SR1/TT1 · W K Mo | — | W K Mo | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | MASTER LUCKY · J Size | — | J Size | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GOLD PATCH | 24.4% | 4.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | SPARKLING FELLOW | 23.1% | 4.33 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | LIVE WIRE | 11.4% | 8.74 | 8 |
| 4 | 6 | SPICY SPEEDY | 8.9% | 11.25 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | YEE CHEONG GLORY | 5.2% | 19.36 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | SKY CAP | 4.8% | 20.90 | 7 |
| 7 | 14 | ENJOY GOLF | 3.9% | 25.86 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | TOP THRONE | 3.6% | 28.10 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | LEADING DRAGON | 3.5% | 28.63 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | BEAUTY GEMINI | 2.8% | 35.79 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | VIVA BOSS | 2.7% | 36.36 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG TALENTS | 2.5% | 39.75 | 14 |
| 13 | 1 | FORZA LEADER | 1.7% | 58.82 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | BULLISH PRIDE | 1.6% | 63.93 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 15.5
PLACE
2 15
4 38.5
8 11
QUINELLA
2,8 47
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 86.5
2,8 23
4,8 56
FORECAST
8,2 59
TIERCE
8,2,4 455
TRIO
2,4,8 163
FIRST 4
2,4,8,14 332
QUARTET
8,2,4,14 2,755