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Sha Tin · 2026-01-25 · 07:40

WAIKUKU HANDICAP

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 7 ("WAIKUKU HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. POSITIVE SMILE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D A Hayes, won, with AEROINVINCIBLE second and FORZA TORO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite ALL'S WELL finished 8th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:21.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 POSITIVE SMILE Closed strongly B/TT 1:21.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D A Hayes 13 6.4
2 7 AEROINVINCIBLE H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 5.8 3/4
3 2 FORZA TORO Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 12 7.8 2-1/2
4 8 BIG RETURN Closed strongly H/TT J Orman · J Richards 10 45.0 2-3/4
5 14 STERLING WONGCHOY B K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 5.6 3-1/4
6 6 LUCKY BALERION Closed strongly L Ferraris · F C Lor 4 18.0 5
7 10 TIME TO FIRE Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall 14 12.0 5-1/4
8 3 ALL'S WELL H/TT M Guyon · C H Yip 3 5.2 6-1/4
9 11 PROUD BOX TT C Y Ho · W Y So 11 17.0 6-1/2
10 12 SMILING FALCON CP H Bentley · K H Ting 7 18.0 7-1/2
11 9 AQUAMAN CP/TT R Kingscote · C W Chang 5 142.0 7-1/2
12 5 MEANINGFUL DRAGON Led early B L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 33.0 18-1/4
13 1 BIGTIME GENERATION XB H Bowman · P F Yiu 2 13.0 38-1/4
14 13 UP WITH CHARM B/H M F Poon · K L Man 6 131.0 40-1/2
0 LUNAR DASH CP- · B Crawford
0 LIGHT YEARS GLORY CP/TT · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. POSITIVE SMILE2. AEROINVINCIBLE+0.75L3. FORZA TORO+2.5L4. BIG RETURN+2.75L5. STERLING WONGCHOY+3.25L6. LUCKY BALERION+5L7. TIME TO FIRE+5.25L8. ALL'S WELL+6.25L9. PROUD BOX+6.5L10. SMILING FALCON+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ALL'S WELL (17.1%) finished 8th — the winner POSITIVE SMILE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ALL'S WELL 17.1% 5.85 8
2 14 STERLING WONGCHOY 11.5% 8.68 5
3 10 TIME TO FIRE 9.4% 10.61 7
4 6 LUCKY BALERION 8.7% 11.45 6
5 2 FORZA TORO 8.6% 11.67 3
6 1 BIGTIME GENERATION 8.2% 12.21 13
7 4 POSITIVE SMILE 7.8% 12.78 1
8 7 AEROINVINCIBLE 7.6% 13.16 2
9 11 PROUD BOX 6.2% 16.00 9
10 12 SMILING FALCON 4.9% 20.51 10
11 5 MEANINGFUL DRAGON 3.8% 26.23 12
12 8 BIG RETURN 2.6% 38.84 4
13 13 UP WITH CHARM 2.4% 42.14 14
14 9 AQUAMAN 1.2% 85.12 11
ALL'S WELLSTERLING WONGCHOYTIME TO FIRELUCKY BALERIONFORZA TOROBIGTIME GENERATIONPOSITIVE SMILE — wonAEROINVINCIBLEPROUD BOXSMILING FALCONMEANINGFUL DRAGONBIG RETURNUP WITH CHARMAQUAMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 64.5

PLACE

2 27.5

4 23

7 22

QUINELLA

4,7 186

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 93

2,7 92

4,7 67

FORECAST

4,7 525

TIERCE

4,7,2 2,968

TRIO

2,4,7 593

FIRST 4

2,4,7,8 5,167

QUARTET

4,7,2,8 61,762

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,3/2,4,7 1,888

6TH DOUBLE

1/4 52

1/7 13.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,11/1,2,3/2,4,7 71,294

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,11/1,2,3/Any Combination 172