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Happy Valley · 2026-03-11 · 11:10

BREEZY HANDICAP

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 ("BREEZY HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY MCQUEEN, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W K Mo, won, with SMART FIGHTER second and THE HEIR third. The 2.2 favourite THE HEIR finished 3rd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 1:09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 LUCKY MCQUEEN H/TT 1:09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W K Mo 10 5.9
2 6 SMART FIGHTER TT- A Badel · P F Yiu 6 25.0 1/2
3 2 THE HEIR J Orman · C Fownes 1 2.2 1-3/4
4 1 JOKER ORBIT B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 38.0 3-3/4
5 9 VIVA FIRECRACKER TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 6.9 4
6 4 KING GLORIOSO SR/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte 12 23.0 4-1/4
7 3 FASHION LEGEND TT L Ferraris · D Eustace 2 12.0 4-1/4
8 11 LEAN MASTER B-/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 3 9.4 5
9 12 NOBLE FANS B/TT A Atzeni · J Size 11 66.0 6
10 7 SUPREME FEELING B M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 37.0 7-1/2
11 10 BLAZING BEAM B/TT R Kingscote · K H Ting 7 24.0 7-3/4
0 HAPPY BRETHREN XB · K W Lui
0 GIDDY UP B-/PC2/TT · J Richards
5 SKY PHOENIX K Teetan · B Crawford 4 14.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY MCQUEEN2. SMART FIGHTER+0.5L3. THE HEIR+1.75L4. JOKER ORBIT+3.75L5. VIVA FIRECRACKER+4L6. KING GLORIOSO+4.25L7. FASHION LEGEND+4.25L8. LEAN MASTER+5L9. NOBLE FANS+6L10. SUPREME FEELING+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick THE HEIR (37.6%) finished 3rd — the winner LUCKY MCQUEEN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 THE HEIR 37.6% 2.66 3
2 8 LUCKY MCQUEEN 18.6% 5.39 1
3 9 VIVA FIRECRACKER 9.8% 10.17 5
4 3 FASHION LEGEND 6.4% 15.60 7
5 11 LEAN MASTER 6.0% 16.62 8
6 4 KING GLORIOSO 4.2% 24.01 6
7 1 JOKER ORBIT 4.1% 24.16 4
8 10 BLAZING BEAM 4.1% 24.67 11
9 6 SMART FIGHTER 3.8% 26.13 2
10 12 NOBLE FANS 3.0% 33.75 9
11 7 SUPREME FEELING 2.4% 41.14 10
THE HEIRLUCKY MCQUEEN — wonVIVA FIRECRACKERFASHION LEGENDLEAN MASTERKING GLORIOSOJOKER ORBITBLAZING BEAMSMART FIGHTERNOBLE FANSSUPREME FEELING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 59

PLACE

2 12

6 53

8 17.5

QUINELLA

6,8 539

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 80.5

2,8 29.5

6,8 157.5

FORECAST

8,6 1,084

TIERCE

8,6,2 2,820

TRIO

2,6,8 391

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 2,139

QUARTET

8,6,2,1 78,763

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/6 515

1/8 1,114.5