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Happy Valley · 2026-03-11 · 12:10

HATTON HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 ("HATTON HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WIN METHOD, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C S Shum, won, with RUN RUN TIMING second and ROMANTIC LAOS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite RUN RUN TIMING finished 2nd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 1:39.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 WIN METHOD Closed strongly B-/TT 1:39.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C S Shum 5 16.0
2 10 RUN RUN TIMING Led early V R Kingscote · P F Yiu 1 2.2 1-1/4
3 1 ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT C L Chau · W K Mo 9 18.0 1-1/2
4 7 VIVACIOUS WIN Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 12 5.7 1-3/4
5 3 CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 37.0 3-3/4
6 11 DASHING MAURISON Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 11 14.0 4-3/4
7 4 ABSOLUTE AWAKENED H/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 4 6.9 5
8 8 GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 2 9.8 5-1/4
9 9 DILBAGH B/XB/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 7 80.0 6
10 12 SETANTA B/TT A Atzeni · M Newnham 6 17.0 6-1/4
11 5 DERRYNBLUE H/TT A Badel · C H Yip 10 96.0 8-1/4
12 2 WIN EASE TT H Bowman · K W Lui 8 19.0 8-3/4
0 GLORIOUS SUCCESS TT · D Eustace
0 VERMILION TEMPEST H-/P-/TT · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WIN METHOD2. RUN RUN TIMING+1.25L3. ROMANTIC LAOS+1.5L4. VIVACIOUS WIN+1.75L5. CELTIC TIMES+3.75L6. DASHING MAURISON+4.75L7. ABSOLUTE AWAKENED+5L8. GOOD LUCK WIN+5.25L9. DILBAGH+6L10. SETANTA+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ABSOLUTE AWAKENED (29.5%) finished 7th — the winner WIN METHOD was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ABSOLUTE AWAKENED 29.5% 3.39 7
2 10 RUN RUN TIMING 16.6% 6.02 2
3 7 VIVACIOUS WIN 16.5% 6.05 4
4 8 GOOD LUCK WIN 6.9% 14.52 8
5 12 SETANTA 6.8% 14.80 10
6 1 ROMANTIC LAOS 4.7% 21.41 3
7 11 DASHING MAURISON 4.5% 22.00 6
8 3 CELTIC TIMES 3.7% 27.23 5
9 6 WIN METHOD 3.3% 30.43 1
10 9 DILBAGH 3.2% 31.56 9
11 2 WIN EASE 2.7% 37.08 12
12 5 DERRYNBLUE 1.7% 59.31 11
ABSOLUTE AWAKENEDRUN RUN TIMINGVIVACIOUS WINGOOD LUCK WINSETANTAROMANTIC LAOSDASHING MAURISONCELTIC TIMESWIN METHOD — wonDILBAGHWIN EASEDERRYNBLUE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 162

PLACE

1 36

6 44.5

10 14

QUINELLA

6,10 161

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 357

1,10 96.5

6,10 66

FORECAST

6,10 411

TIERCE

6,10,1 8,098

TRIO

1,6,10 1,044

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 1,156

QUARTET

6,10,1,7 38,633

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

11/6 1,109.5

11/10 41.5