Happy Valley · 2026-03-11 · 14:50
LYTTELTON HANDICAP
Race 9
Race 9 ("LYTTELTON HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-11 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FALLON, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by A S Cruz, won, with CHINA WIN second and KEEFY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite CHINA WIN finished 2nd.
Track detail
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FALLON Closed strongly B/TT 1:48.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 4 | 16.0 | — |
| 2 | 11 | CHINA WIN Closed strongly Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 1.7 | N |
| 3 | 4 | KEEFY CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | LE ZONDA Closed strongly TT C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 10 | 52.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | HIGHLAND RAHY B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 6 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | MIGHTY STRENGTH Closed strongly B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 8 | 45.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | MISTER DAPPER Led early B/XB/TT B Avdulla · D Eustace | B Avdulla | D Eustace | 7 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | ANOTHER WORLD C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 1 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | EXCELLENCE VALUE CP/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 2 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | JUMBO LEGEND B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 9 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | ENTHUSIUM TT D B McMonagle · J Size | D B McMonagle | J Size | 12 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | LA CITY BLANCHE B-/XB/TT2 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 11 | 146.0 | 12-1/2 |
| — | 0 | RELIABLE PROFIT TT · C S Shum | — | C S Shum | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | DEFINITIVE B/TT · D Eustace | — | D Eustace | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CHINA WIN | 58.4% | 1.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | ANOTHER WORLD | 11.4% | 8.78 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | JUMBO LEGEND | 5.7% | 17.41 | 10 |
| 4 | 9 | ENTHUSIUM | 4.0% | 25.23 | 11 |
| 5 | 4 | KEEFY | 3.9% | 25.57 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | HIGHLAND RAHY | 3.4% | 29.29 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | MIGHTY STRENGTH | 3.1% | 32.67 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | MISTER DAPPER | 2.8% | 36.33 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | LE ZONDA | 2.5% | 40.39 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | FALLON | 1.8% | 55.93 | 1 |
| 11 | 10 | EXCELLENCE VALUE | 1.8% | 56.10 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 1.3% | 76.26 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 168.5
PLACE
4 27
8 32.5
11 12
QUINELLA
8,11 104
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 176
4,11 46
8,11 44
FORECAST
8,11 350
TIERCE
8,11,4 2,515
TRIO
4,8,11 316
FIRST 4
4,5,8,11 1,901
QUARTET
8,11,4,5 38,627
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
6/5/8 7,837
6/5/11 269
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,9/4,8,11 35,655
8TH DOUBLE
5/8 1,231.5
5/11 30
SIX UP
6,10/4,10/1,4/6,10/5,8/8,11 32,590
1 [C Fownes] —
2 [J Orman] —