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Happy Valley · 2026-04-22 · 12:15

LAVENDER HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 ("LAVENDER HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-04-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VIGOR EYE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won, with CAPTAIN LINK second and YOUNG ARROW third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (4)
Penetrometer 2.71 #11 SOLAR RIVER — Weight Change #3 LUCKY MCQUEEN — Code 96 #3 LUCKY MCQUEEN — Jockey Change #3 LUCKY MCQUEEN — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:10.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 VIGOR EYE CP 1:10.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 2.3
2 2 CAPTAIN LINK B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 48.0 SH
3 1 YOUNG ARROW CP E Brown · D J Whyte 3 8.3 N
4 9 LEADING AGILITY H/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 6 6.8 3/4
5 3 LUCKY MCQUEEN H/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 12 4.5 1-1/2
6 4 JOLLY COMPANION B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man 4 10.0 2
7 7 FLYING SNIPER H Bowman · D J Hall 11 15.0 2-1/2
8 10 YEUX DE LIFELINE B/TT A Atzeni · J Size 1 17.0 2-3/4
9 8 KWAI CHUNG TALENTS M L Yeung · C W Chang 8 79.0 3-1/2
10 11 SOLAR RIVER CP/TT A Badel · K H Ting 9 34.0 4-1/4
11 12 ZHOU GONGJIN B P N Wong · B Crawford 7 126.0 9
12 5 LUCKY XANDER R Kingscote · P F Yiu 10 159.0 10-1/4
0 TACTICAL COMMAND B · M Newnham
WV 3 GEORGIAN SIGMA PC M F Poon · P C Ng 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIGOR EYE2. CAPTAIN LINK+0.1L3. YOUNG ARROW+0.05L4. LEADING AGILITY+0.75L5. LUCKY MCQUEEN+1.5L6. JOLLY COMPANION+2L7. FLYING SNIPER+2.5L8. YEUX DE LIFELINE+2.75L9. KWAI CHUNG TALENTS+3.5L10. SOLAR RIVER+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick VIGOR EYE (51.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VIGOR EYE 51.6% 1.94 1
2 9 LEADING AGILITY 9.9% 10.14 4
3 3 LUCKY MCQUEEN 7.8% 12.85 5
4 7 FLYING SNIPER 7.1% 14.17 7
5 10 YEUX DE LIFELINE 5.4% 18.43 8
6 4 JOLLY COMPANION 4.5% 22.25 6
7 1 YOUNG ARROW 3.3% 30.07 3
8 11 SOLAR RIVER 3.1% 31.88 10
9 2 CAPTAIN LINK 3.1% 32.32 2
10 8 KWAI CHUNG TALENTS 1.7% 58.66 9
11 12 ZHOU GONGJIN 1.5% 66.30 11
12 5 LUCKY XANDER 1.0% 96.63 12
VIGOR EYE — wonLEADING AGILITYLUCKY MCQUEENFLYING SNIPERYEUX DE LIFELINEJOLLY COMPANIONYOUNG ARROWSOLAR RIVERCAPTAIN LINKKWAI CHUNG TALENTSZHOU GONGJINLUCKY XANDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 23

PLACE

1 21.5

2 115.5

6 13.5

QUINELLA

2,6 861

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 590

1,6 34.5

2,6 247

FORECAST

6,2 836

TIERCE

6,2,1 4,488

TRIO

1,2,6 1,067

FIRST 4

1,2,6,9 1,060

QUARTET

6,2,1,9 21,223

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

5/2 632

5/6 209