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Happy Valley · 2026-04-22 · 12:45

THE LUSITANO CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 ("THE LUSITANO CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP)") at Happy Valley on 2026-04-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THUNDER PRINCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won, with WINNING CHAMPION second and SPEEDY SMARTIE third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.71 #9 LOVING VIBES — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:09.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 THUNDER PRINCE CP- 1:09.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 1 2.2
2 12 WINNING CHAMPION B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 4 5.2 2
3 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE K Teetan · B Crawford 10 14.0 3-1/4
4 8 LITTLE MONSTER H/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 7 5.8 4-1/4
5 3 KING OBERON B E C W Wong · D J Whyte 6 61.0 5-1/4
6 4 WINNING MONEY H/XB/CP1 L Ferraris · K W Lui 9 11.0 5-1/2
7 7 SILVER SPURS TT J Moreira · C Fownes 12 17.0 6
8 9 LOVING VIBES TT C L Chau · M Newnham 11 17.0 6
9 5 TURBO JEFFERIES H Bentley · D A Hayes 2 25.0 7-1/4
10 10 BLAZING BEAM B/TT R Kingscote · K H Ting 3 43.0 7-3/4
11 2 SUPER LOVE P-/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 5 55.0 9-3/4
12 6 FUN ELITE TT P N Wong · C W Chang 8 38.0 20-3/4
0 WINNING NOW B · F C Lor
0 BIGTIME GENERATION SR/XB · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THUNDER PRINCE2. WINNING CHAMPION+2L3. SPEEDY SMARTIE+3.25L4. LITTLE MONSTER+4.25L5. KING OBERON+5.25L6. WINNING MONEY+5.5L7. SILVER SPURS+6L8. LOVING VIBES+6L9. TURBO JEFFERIES+7.25L10. BLAZING BEAM+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick THUNDER PRINCE (25.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 THUNDER PRINCE 25.2% 3.97 1
2 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE 14.8% 6.74 3
3 12 WINNING CHAMPION 14.2% 7.03 2
4 4 WINNING MONEY 7.8% 12.77 6
5 7 SILVER SPURS 7.7% 13.03 7
6 9 LOVING VIBES 7.2% 13.90 8
7 6 FUN ELITE 6.0% 16.76 12
8 5 TURBO JEFFERIES 5.8% 17.30 9
9 8 LITTLE MONSTER 4.2% 23.84 4
10 2 SUPER LOVE 2.7% 36.79 11
11 10 BLAZING BEAM 2.2% 45.20 10
12 3 KING OBERON 2.2% 45.76 5
THUNDER PRINCE — wonSPEEDY SMARTIEWINNING CHAMPIONWINNING MONEYSILVER SPURSLOVING VIBESFUN ELITETURBO JEFFERIESLITTLE MONSTERSUPER LOVEBLAZING BEAMKING OBERON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 22

PLACE

1 30.5

11 14

12 14

QUINELLA

11,12 48

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 57.5

1,12 89.5

11,12 23

FORECAST

11,12 80

TIERCE

11,12,1 628

TRIO

1,11,12 190

FIRST 4

1,8,11,12 210

QUARTET

11,12,1,8 3,002

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

5/6/11 560

5/6/12 175

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,6/1,11,12 26,369

4TH DOUBLE

6/11 63.5

6/12 21