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Sha Tin · 2026-05-17 · 04:45

BUFFALO HILL HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 ("BUFFALO HILL HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-17 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. ON THE LASH, ridden by H Y Yuen and trained by P C Ng, won, with ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT second and SUPER HONG KONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT finished 2nd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.73

Result

Official · 1:50.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ON THE LASH Closed strongly B/TT 1:50.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Y Yuen · P C Ng 3 8.9
2 10 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT Closed strongly V/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 3.1 1
3 7 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 9 50.0 2-1/4
4 5 FAMILY FORTUNE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 14 12.0 3-3/4
5 11 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 34.0 5-1/4
6 8 ALL ARE MINE H/XB Z Purton · B Crawford 4 3.3 5-1/2
7 3 MATSU VICTOR Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 16.0 6
8 9 PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B A Atzeni · J Size 5 13.0 6-3/4
9 14 CHATEAU LE PECHE B M Chadwick · K H Ting 7 36.0 7
10 1 HAILTOTHEVICTORS B/TT L Ferraris · D Eustace 11 20.0 7-1/2
11 2 KOLACHI XB-/E/SR/TT2 H Bentley · D J Whyte 13 75.0 8
12 4 SPECIAL HEDGE B-/CP1/TT C L Chau · C W Chang 2 12.0 12-1/4
13 13 GOLD TACK V1 P N Wong · D J Hall 12 39.0 12-1/2
14 12 RUN YES RUN Led early B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 10 31.0 15-1/4
0 HAPPY BUDDIES CP/TT · W K Mo
0 PERFECTO MOMENTS CP · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ON THE LASH2. ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT+1L3. SUPER HONG KONG+2.25L4. FAMILY FORTUNE+3.75L5. SMART BEAUTY+5.25L6. ALL ARE MINE+5.5L7. MATSU VICTOR+6L8. PERFECT PAIRING+6.75L9. CHATEAU LE PECHE+7L10. HAILTOTHEVICTORS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ALL ARE MINE (20.8%) finished 6th — the winner ON THE LASH was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 ALL ARE MINE 20.8% 4.81 6
2 9 PERFECT PAIRING 13.5% 7.38 8
3 1 HAILTOTHEVICTORS 9.3% 10.76 10
4 5 FAMILY FORTUNE 8.8% 11.34 4
5 3 MATSU VICTOR 7.8% 12.75 7
6 6 ON THE LASH 7.6% 13.15 1
7 10 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 6.9% 14.39 2
8 4 SPECIAL HEDGE 4.8% 20.64 12
9 13 GOLD TACK 4.5% 22.35 13
10 12 RUN YES RUN 3.9% 25.87 14
11 14 CHATEAU LE PECHE 3.3% 29.92 9
12 11 SMART BEAUTY 3.3% 30.29 5
13 2 KOLACHI 3.1% 32.01 11
14 7 SUPER HONG KONG 2.2% 45.36 3
ALL ARE MINEPERFECT PAIRINGHAILTOTHEVICTORSFAMILY FORTUNEMATSU VICTORON THE LASH — wonROSEWOOD FLEETFOOTSPECIAL HEDGEGOLD TACKRUN YES RUNCHATEAU LE PECHESMART BEAUTYKOLACHISUPER HONG KONG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 89.5

PLACE

6 26

7 137.5

10 13

QUINELLA

6,10 136.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 541.5

6,10 56

7,10 435

FORECAST

6,10 416

TIERCE

6,10,7 15,074

TRIO

6,7,10 3,994

FIRST 4

5,6,7,10 10,070

QUARTET

6,10,7,5 144,001