Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2026-05-17 · 10:20

SIU MA SHAN HANDICAP

Race 11

Class 3 YIELDING 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 11 ("SIU MA SHAN HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-17 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. BRILLIANT EXPRESS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won, with ALL'S WELL second and AEROVOLANIC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.0 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.73

Result

Official · 1:23.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BRILLIANT EXPRESS Closed strongly 1:23.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 1 5.0
2 7 ALL'S WELL Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 5 20.0 3/4
3 2 AEROVOLANIC Closed strongly CP Z Purton · P C Ng 14 6.7 2
4 9 KEMPES Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall 12 50.0 3-1/4
5 10 COMPLETE UNKNOWN Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W K Mo 13 36.0 3-3/4
6 5 DREAMING TOGETHER Closed strongly CP- C L Chau · B Crawford 10 124.0 4
7 4 URANUS STAR XB H Y Yuen · K W Lui 4 10.0 4
8 1 EVERYONE'S STAR J Moreira · F C Lor 7 5.1 4-3/4
9 8 HAPPY BOSS CP/TT L Ferraris · D Eustace 3 6.1 6-3/4
10 11 WELL ENOUGH Closed strongly XB-/TT1 H Bentley · J Richards 8 62.0 9
11 14 TIN FOOK Led early B A Atzeni · P F Yiu 11 8.3 13-3/4
12 13 GHORGAN Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 9 8.5 14-1/4
13 6 NATURAL NUMBERS B E Brown · Y S Tsui 6 20.0 15-3/4
14 12 WITHOUT RHYME CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 141.0 20
0 TANG HEART B-/XB- · C Fownes
0 WINNING GOLD TT · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRILLIANT EXPRESS2. ALL'S WELL+0.75L3. AEROVOLANIC+2L4. KEMPES+3.25L5. COMPLETE UNKNOWN+3.75L6. DREAMING TOGETHER+4L7. URANUS STAR+4L8. EVERYONE'S STAR+4.75L9. HAPPY BOSS+6.75L10. WELL ENOUGH+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick AEROVOLANIC (18.9%) finished 3rd — the winner BRILLIANT EXPRESS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 AEROVOLANIC 18.9% 5.29 3
2 1 EVERYONE'S STAR 18.9% 5.30 8
3 8 HAPPY BOSS 13.6% 7.34 9
4 3 BRILLIANT EXPRESS 11.9% 8.41 1
5 4 URANUS STAR 7.6% 13.17 7
6 14 TIN FOOK 7.3% 13.75 11
7 13 GHORGAN 6.2% 16.21 12
8 7 ALL'S WELL 5.7% 17.46 2
9 9 KEMPES 2.3% 44.33 4
10 6 NATURAL NUMBERS 2.1% 47.70 13
11 10 COMPLETE UNKNOWN 1.9% 52.20 5
12 11 WELL ENOUGH 1.8% 55.90 10
13 5 DREAMING TOGETHER 1.1% 94.64 6
14 12 WITHOUT RHYME 0.8% 121.18 14
AEROVOLANICEVERYONE'S STARHAPPY BOSSBRILLIANT EXPRESS — wonURANUS STARTIN FOOKGHORGANALL'S WELLKEMPESNATURAL NUMBERSCOMPLETE UNKNOWNWELL ENOUGHDREAMING TOGETHERWITHOUT RHYME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 50.5

PLACE

2 25

3 18

7 52

QUINELLA

3,7 468

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 61

2,7 208.5

3,7 146.5

FORECAST

3,7 761

TIERCE

3,7,2 5,099

TRIO

2,3,7 1,150

FIRST 4

2,3,7,9 8,586

QUARTET

3,7,2,9 124,694

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

10/3 618

10/7 171

2ND TREBLE

5/10/3 13,387

5/10/7 3,711

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,10/2,3,7 22,184

SIX UP

10/1/14/5/10/3 1,987,653

10,11/1,4/7,14/5,13/8,10/3,7 97,855

5 [K W Lui]

4 [Z Purton]