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Sha Tin · 2026-05-17 · 08:10

LUNG FU SHAN HANDICAP

Race 7

Class 4 YIELDING 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 ("LUNG FU SHAN HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-17 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. RUN RUN SMART, ridden by H Y Yuen and trained by F C Lor, won, with SOLID CAR second and MASTER LUCKY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite FORZA TORO finished 5th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.73

Result

Official · 1:23.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RUN RUN SMART Wire to wire TT 1:23.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Y Yuen · F C Lor 9 3.5
2 4 SOLID CAR Closed strongly B J Orman · D J Hall 6 5.4 3-1/4
3 3 MASTER LUCKY A Atzeni · J Size 5 8.2 4-3/4
4 12 NINJA DERBY K Teetan · B Crawford 2 16.0 5
5 2 FORZA TORO Closed strongly XB1/TT- J Moreira · C Fownes 8 3.3 6
6 8 SEA DIAMOND Closed strongly B-/XB1/TT R Kingscote · D Eustace 13 155.0 6-1/4
7 11 MULTISUPERSTAR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 52.0 7
8 9 KING GLORIOSO SR/TT C Y Ho · K L Man 10 83.0 7
9 14 SUPER MASTERMIND Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 12 167.0 7-1/2
10 6 NEXT FORTUNE H/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 102.0 7-3/4
11 10 DUKE OF ORANGE TT A Badel · C H Yip 4 12.0 9-1/2
12 5 MERLION XB/CP1/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 14 130.0 16-1/2
13 13 AQUAMAN CP-/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 1 21.0 18
14 7 SUPERB BOY TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 13.0 19-1/4
0 TOP TIME · W Y So
0 NYX GLUCK CP · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN RUN SMART2. SOLID CAR+3.25L3. MASTER LUCKY+4.75L4. NINJA DERBY+5L5. FORZA TORO+6L6. SEA DIAMOND+6.25L7. MULTISUPERSTAR+7L8. KING GLORIOSO+7L9. SUPER MASTERMIND+7.5L10. NEXT FORTUNE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FORZA TORO (33.1%) finished 5th — the winner RUN RUN SMART was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FORZA TORO 33.1% 3.02 5
2 1 RUN RUN SMART 10.3% 9.75 1
3 3 MASTER LUCKY 9.8% 10.18 3
4 12 NINJA DERBY 8.5% 11.75 4
5 4 SOLID CAR 7.3% 13.70 2
6 9 KING GLORIOSO 5.8% 17.28 8
7 10 DUKE OF ORANGE 5.1% 19.52 11
8 11 MULTISUPERSTAR 3.7% 26.98 7
9 7 SUPERB BOY 3.7% 27.11 14
10 6 NEXT FORTUNE 3.1% 31.99 10
11 5 MERLION 2.7% 37.62 12
12 14 SUPER MASTERMIND 2.6% 38.71 9
13 13 AQUAMAN 2.4% 41.88 13
14 8 SEA DIAMOND 1.9% 51.57 6
FORZA TORORUN RUN SMART — wonMASTER LUCKYNINJA DERBYSOLID CARKING GLORIOSODUKE OF ORANGEMULTISUPERSTARSUPERB BOYNEXT FORTUNEMERLIONSUPER MASTERMINDAQUAMANSEA DIAMOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 35.5

PLACE

1 17.5

3 23.5

4 17.5

QUINELLA

1,4 100.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 60

1,4 42.5

3,4 62.5

FORECAST

1,4 195

TIERCE

1,4,3 1,030

TRIO

1,3,4 257

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 613

QUARTET

1,4,3,12 8,242

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,11/1,3,4 38,242

6TH DOUBLE

10/1 178

10/4 62.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,7/2,10,11/1,3,4 2,289,680

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,7/2,10,11/Any Combination 7,322