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Sha Tin · 2026-05-17 · 06:15

LUK WU HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 ("LUK WU HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. LITTLE MONSTER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W K Mo, won, with BETTER AND BETTER second and MIGHTY FIGHTER third. The 2.7 favourite PAPAYA BROSE finished 4th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.73 #11 LITTLE MONSTER — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:10.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LITTLE MONSTER H/TT 1:10.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W K Mo 11 7.5
2 10 BETTER AND BETTER H/P/TT A Badel · F C Lor 7 5.9 N
3 8 MIGHTY FIGHTER TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 3 6.6 3-1/2
4 1 PAPAYA BROSE TT J Moreira · C Fownes 4 2.7 4-1/4
5 5 OLDTOWN XB/B1 J Orman · M Newnham 10 21.0 4-1/4
6 4 NAVAS G XB H Y Yuen · D J Whyte 5 4.3 6-1/4
7 6 SPEEDY POWER M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 12 68.0 6-1/4
8 2 A TIME FOR US B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 42.0 6-1/4
9 7 LIGHTNESS OF BEING CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 80.0 8
10 9 AMO ERGO SUM B Avdulla · B Crawford 2 101.0 9-3/4
11 3 MASSIVE REWARD CP1/TT E Brown · C S Shum 6 33.0 10-1/4
12 12 VIVA BOSS H1/TT P N Wong · K L Man 1 48.0 17
0 REGROWTH WINNER B/TT · J Richards
0 LEAN MASTER B/TT · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LITTLE MONSTER2. BETTER AND BETTER+0.05L3. MIGHTY FIGHTER+3.5L4. PAPAYA BROSE+4.25L5. OLDTOWN+4.25L6. NAVAS G+6.25L7. SPEEDY POWER+6.25L8. A TIME FOR US+6.25L9. LIGHTNESS OF BEING+8L10. AMO ERGO SUM+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PAPAYA BROSE (36.2%) finished 4th — the winner LITTLE MONSTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PAPAYA BROSE 36.2% 2.76 4
2 4 NAVAS G 15.5% 6.46 6
3 10 BETTER AND BETTER 14.2% 7.02 2
4 8 MIGHTY FIGHTER 9.0% 11.14 3
5 11 LITTLE MONSTER 6.9% 14.53 1
6 5 OLDTOWN 6.8% 14.66 5
7 2 A TIME FOR US 2.9% 35.04 8
8 6 SPEEDY POWER 2.1% 47.03 7
9 7 LIGHTNESS OF BEING 2.0% 50.77 9
10 9 AMO ERGO SUM 1.8% 55.52 10
11 12 VIVA BOSS 1.3% 74.79 12
12 3 MASSIVE REWARD 1.3% 76.26 11
PAPAYA BROSENAVAS GBETTER AND BETTERMIGHTY FIGHTERLITTLE MONSTER — wonOLDTOWNA TIME FOR USSPEEDY POWERLIGHTNESS OF BEINGAMO ERGO SUMVIVA BOSSMASSIVE REWARD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 75.5

PLACE

8 19.5

10 18

11 24.5

QUINELLA

10,11 204

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 57.5

8,11 88

10,11 64.5

FORECAST

11,10 428

TIERCE

11,10,8 2,357

TRIO

8,10,11 376

FIRST 4

1,8,10,11 252

QUARTET

11,10,8,1 8,797

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

3/10 88

3/11 1,319.5