沙田 · 2019-10-06
第 3場
2019-10-06沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由K Teetan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的HIDDEN SPIRIT勝出，贏出1-1/4。MASTER BERNINI獲得亞軍；CHATER THUNDER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.7倍大熱門LET'S COME BACK跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HIDDEN SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT 1.40.61 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 14 | MASTER BERNINI 後段發力 B J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 13 | 6.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | CHATER THUNDER 後段發力 H/XB/B2 A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | MI BLANCO 後段發力 B/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 9.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | KEEP WINNING TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 1 | 9.1 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | LET'S COME BACK CP/TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 2 | 4.7 | 8-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | SUNNY MAJOR B/TT- H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 7 | 159.0 | 9 |
| 8 | 13 | WHAMPOA STAR PC1 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 4 | 12.0 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | GUERDON HELMET 後段發力 B- R Bayliss · K L Man | R Bayliss | K L Man | 14 | 219.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | DATING 後段發力 B/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 10 | 44.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | WONDERFUL TIGER 早段領放 H/XB/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 6 | 31.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | ASSOCIATION FANS CP-/H/SR M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 8 | 12.0 | 17-1/2 |
| 13 | 3 | SUN FOXHUNTER B B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 5 | 98.0 | 32-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | TIGERLAD B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 12 | 104.0 | 35-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HIDDEN SPIRIT | 24.1% | 4.16 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | LET'S COME BACK | 18.2% | 5.48 | 6 |
| 3 | 14 | MASTER BERNINI | 15.5% | 6.44 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | KEEP WINNING | 11.6% | 8.61 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | MI BLANCO | 8.1% | 12.30 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | ASSOCIATION FANS | 6.5% | 15.32 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 4.1% | 24.49 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | DATING | 2.5% | 39.53 | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | WHAMPOA STAR | 2.3% | 42.56 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | SUNNY MAJOR | 1.9% | 53.84 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | CHATER THUNDER | 1.5% | 67.78 | 3 |
| 12 | 3 | SUN FOXHUNTER | 1.4% | 73.20 | 13 |
| 13 | 11 | GUERDON HELMET | 1.3% | 74.17 | 9 |
| 14 | 1 | TIGERLAD | 0.9% | 112.08 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 51.5
PLACE
8 18
10 23.5
14 22.5
QUINELLA
8,14 168.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,10 72
8,14 66
10,14 88.5
TIERCE
8,14,10 2,162
TRIO
8,10,14 396
FIRST 4
8,9,10,14 834
QUARTET
8,14,10,9 15,474
2ND DOUBLE
2/8 75.5
2/14 37.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 26