沙田 · 2019-10-06
第 6場
2019-10-06沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由J Moreira策騎、C S Shum訓練的GOOD RUNNERS WAY勝出，贏出1/2。ENFOLDING獲得亞軍；THIS ONE'S FOR YOU獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.3倍大熱門ENFOLDING跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY 後段發力 B/TT 1.40.22 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 9 | 6.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | ENFOLDING 後段發力 V1 Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 7 | 3.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 後段發力 B/H M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 12 | 6.1 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | GOOD FIT 後段發力 PC/TT N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 11 | 29.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | TOUCH OF LUCK 後段發力 PC A Domeyer · J Moore | A Domeyer | J Moore | 8 | 6.1 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | PROMISE KEPT XB/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 2 | 4.4 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | PLAY WISE 後段發力 B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 10 | 26.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | GRAND HARBOUR 早段領放 B-/H2/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 3 | 16.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | BRING IT ON TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 5 | 83.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE B/H L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 4 | 66.0 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | RAZOR QUEST TT A Sanna · C W Chang | A Sanna | C W Chang | 1 | 73.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | CASIMIRO R Bayliss · C H Yip | R Bayliss | C H Yip | 6 | 27.0 | 22-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY | 24.7% | 4.05 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | ENFOLDING | 17.0% | 5.87 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 15.6% | 6.42 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | PROMISE KEPT | 9.9% | 10.15 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | PLAY WISE | 6.7% | 14.90 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | GRAND HARBOUR | 6.2% | 16.03 | 8 |
| 7 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | 5.0% | 19.87 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | GOOD FIT | 4.7% | 21.23 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | CASIMIRO | 4.1% | 24.30 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 2.8% | 35.40 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | RAZOR QUEST | 1.7% | 58.74 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | BRING IT ON | 1.5% | 66.76 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 66.5
PLACE
5 14.5
11 23.5
12 23
QUINELLA
5,12 117
QUINELLA PLACE
5,11 62.5
5,12 44.5
11,12 82.5
TIERCE
12,5,11 2,011
TRIO
5,11,12 301
FIRST 4
3,5,11,12 1,392
QUARTET
12,5,11,3 29,559
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 21
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
8/5 40
8/12 361.5
TRIPLE TRIO
3,7,9/3,8,9/5,11,12 65,309
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,7,9/3,8,9/Any Combination 477