沙田 · 2020-02-16
第 1場
2020-02-16沙田第1場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K W Lui訓練的HAPPY ALUMNI勝出，贏出1-1/2。SIMPLY FLUKE獲得亞軍；INCANTO PREPARED獲得季軍。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT 1.10.13 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 2.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 14 | 4.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | INCANTO PREPARED E/TT G van Niekerk · J Size | G van Niekerk | J Size | 3 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SPARKLING STAR H-/TT1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | HARD PROMISE N Callan · T P Yung | N Callan | T P Yung | 7 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | MELBOURNE HALL XB J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 4 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 5 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | SACRED TIMING B M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 9 | 136.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | BLAZING PARTNERS SR H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 10 | 161.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | REGENCY MASTER TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 11 | 40.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | EURO LAGO B B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 2 | 83.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | MIGHTY VALOR B H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 6 | 31.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | CENTENARY IBIS L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 13 | 158.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | MR DARTHVEGAR H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 12 | 156.0 | 15-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HAPPY ALUMNI | 24.9% | 4.02 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | MELBOURNE HALL | 17.5% | 5.73 | 6 |
| 3 | 13 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 11.5% | 8.71 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | SPARKLING STAR | 10.6% | 9.47 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 6.6% | 15.19 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | REGENCY MASTER | 6.3% | 15.82 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | INCANTO PREPARED | 6.3% | 15.83 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | MR DARTHVEGAR | 3.5% | 28.38 | 14 |
| 9 | 10 | SACRED TIMING | 3.3% | 30.09 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | MIGHTY VALOR | 3.1% | 32.33 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | EURO LAGO | 2.2% | 46.26 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | CENTENARY IBIS | 2.1% | 48.01 | 13 |
| 13 | 1 | HARD PROMISE | 1.1% | 89.44 | 5 |
| 14 | 14 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 1.1% | 89.57 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 25
PLACE
2 13.5
11 29
13 15
QUINELLA
2,13 62.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,11 52.5
2,13 30.5
11,13 68
TIERCE
2,13,11 757
TRIO
2,11,13 152
FIRST 4
2,8,11,13 240
QUARTET
2,13,11,8 3,896
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 15.5