沙田 · 2020-02-16
第 4場
2020-02-16沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、P F Yiu訓練的MIGHTY GIANT勝出，贏出4-1/4。MY WINNER獲得亞軍；SUPER WINNER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT 後段發力 B 1.22.28 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 14 | 1.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | MY WINNER 後段發力 B T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 7 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 3 | 13 | SUPER WINNER 早段領放 H/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 8 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | HAPPY WARRIOR 後段發力 CP N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 5 | 27.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP 後段發力 H-/P J Spencer · L Ho | J Spencer | L Ho | 12 | 100.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | STAR MAJESTIC 後段發力 B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 38.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 4 | 6.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | LEADING FORTUNE B M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 9 | 72.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | GALAXY EMPEROR 後段發力 H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 95.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | SO HAPPY 後段發力 B C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 13 | 150.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | LIGHTNING STEED TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 15.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | YES WE CAN XB/CP1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 1 | 29.0 | 11 |
| 13 | 8 | HAPPY TANGO XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 54.0 | 11 |
| 14 | 3 | TRIPLE TRIPLE J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 6.1 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT | 30.3% | 3.30 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 18.7% | 5.35 | 14 |
| 3 | 12 | LIGHTNING STEED | 12.6% | 7.93 | 11 |
| 4 | 6 | GOLDEN FOUR | 12.0% | 8.31 | 7 |
| 5 | 13 | SUPER WINNER | 6.7% | 14.90 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | MY WINNER | 3.2% | 31.44 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | YES WE CAN | 3.1% | 32.67 | 12 |
| 8 | 14 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 2.8% | 35.95 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | LEADING FORTUNE | 2.6% | 38.66 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 2.4% | 41.19 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | STAR MAJESTIC | 1.7% | 58.44 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | HAPPY TANGO | 1.7% | 60.30 | 13 |
| 13 | 4 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP | 1.6% | 63.62 | 5 |
| 14 | 9 | SO HAPPY | 0.7% | 147.20 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 19.5
PLACE
2 10.5
7 27
13 32.5
QUINELLA
2,7 136.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 53.5
2,13 43.5
7,13 193
TIERCE
2,7,13 1,425
TRIO
2,7,13 338
FIRST 4
1,2,7,13 1,880
QUARTET
2,7,13,1 18,165
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,14/2,7,13 107,949
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 17
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 90
4/7 73