沙田 · 2020-02-16
第 10場
2020-02-16沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由T Piccone策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的DRAGON GENERAL勝出，贏出NOSE。HAPPY FUN獲得亞軍；STAR SHINE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門HAPPY FUN跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DRAGON GENERAL 後段發力 TT 1.21.81 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 10 | 30.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 4 | HAPPY FUN B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 4 | 2.5 | NOSE |
| 3 | 11 | STAR SHINE 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 9.1 | NOSE |
| 4 | 13 | LOBO'S LEGEND 後段發力 G van Niekerk · D E Ferraris | G van Niekerk | D E Ferraris | 13 | 9.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | TORNADO TWIST 後段發力 E/TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 8 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 14 | RACING FIGHTER 後段發力 TT H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 2 | 32.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | STAR PERFORMANCE TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 6 | 7.9 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | JOYFUL UNION 後段發力 B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 7 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | HELLO DADDY 早段領放 H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 12 | 243.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | TURIN REDSTAR CP/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 5 | 73.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | MORETHANLUCKY B M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 14 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | GRACEANDMERCY H/XB L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 1 | 46.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 6 | UNCLE STEVE CP/XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 4.6 | 12 |
| 14 | 10 | KYRUS UNICORN SR1 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 3 | 137.0 | 17-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HAPPY FUN | 27.6% | 3.63 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | UNCLE STEVE | 27.1% | 3.69 | 13 |
| 3 | 5 | STAR PERFORMANCE | 12.7% | 7.89 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | STAR SHINE | 5.5% | 18.30 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | JOYFUL UNION | 4.5% | 22.06 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | TORNADO TWIST | 4.5% | 22.22 | 5 |
| 7 | 13 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 3.8% | 26.62 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | MORETHANLUCKY | 3.4% | 29.82 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | DRAGON GENERAL | 2.7% | 36.46 | 1 |
| 10 | 14 | RACING FIGHTER | 2.3% | 43.19 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | TURIN REDSTAR | 2.2% | 44.61 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | KYRUS UNICORN | 1.6% | 62.14 | 14 |
| 13 | 9 | GRACEANDMERCY | 1.3% | 78.74 | 12 |
| 14 | 12 | HELLO DADDY | 0.9% | 112.59 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 308.5
PLACE
4 13.5
7 66.5
11 28.5
QUINELLA
4,7 366.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 127
4,11 55
7,11 339.5
TIERCE
7,4,11 7,162
TRIO
4,7,11 873
FIRST 4
4,7,11,13 1,302
QUARTET
7,4,11,13 46,367
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 38.5
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,14/4,7,11 23,105
9TH DOUBLE
14/4 10.5
14/7 396.5
SIX UP
1,7/1,2/1,7/3,4/2,14/4,7 854
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
3/14/4 272
3/14/7 10,198