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Sha Tin · 2020-02-16

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-16 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON GENERAL, ridden by T Piccone and trained by Y S Tsui, won by NOSE, with HAPPY FUN second and STAR SHINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite HAPPY FUN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 DRAGON GENERAL Closed strongly TT 1.21.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · Y S Tsui 10 30.0 NOSE
2 4 HAPPY FUN B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 4 2.5 NOSE
3 11 STAR SHINE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 9.1 NOSE
4 13 LOBO'S LEGEND Closed strongly G van Niekerk · D E Ferraris 13 9.9 2
5 1 TORNADO TWIST Closed strongly E/TT C Schofield · J Size 8 18.0 2-1/2
6 14 RACING FIGHTER Closed strongly TT H T Mo · C H Yip 2 32.0 2-3/4
7 5 STAR PERFORMANCE TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 6 7.9 3
8 8 JOYFUL UNION Closed strongly B Shinn · T P Yung 7 26.0 3-1/2
9 12 HELLO DADDY Led early H N Wong · K H Ting 12 243.0 4-3/4
10 3 TURIN REDSTAR CP/TT K C Leung · L Ho 5 73.0 5
11 2 MORETHANLUCKY B M Chadwick · F C Lor 14 17.0 8-1/2
12 9 GRACEANDMERCY H/XB L Hewitson · A T Millard 1 46.0 10-1/4
13 6 UNCLE STEVE CP/XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 4.6 12
14 10 KYRUS UNICORN SR1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 137.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON GENERAL2. HAPPY FUN+0.05L3. STAR SHINE+0.05L4. LOBO'S LEGEND+2L5. TORNADO TWIST+2.5L6. RACING FIGHTER+2.75L7. STAR PERFORMANCE+3L8. JOYFUL UNION+3.5L9. HELLO DADDY+4.75L10. TURIN REDSTAR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HAPPY FUN (27.6%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON GENERAL was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 HAPPY FUN 27.6% 3.63 2
2 6 UNCLE STEVE 27.1% 3.69 13
3 5 STAR PERFORMANCE 12.7% 7.89 7
4 11 STAR SHINE 5.5% 18.30 3
5 8 JOYFUL UNION 4.5% 22.06 8
6 1 TORNADO TWIST 4.5% 22.22 5
7 13 LOBO'S LEGEND 3.8% 26.62 4
8 2 MORETHANLUCKY 3.4% 29.82 11
9 7 DRAGON GENERAL 2.7% 36.46 1
10 14 RACING FIGHTER 2.3% 43.19 6
11 3 TURIN REDSTAR 2.2% 44.61 10
12 10 KYRUS UNICORN 1.6% 62.14 14
13 9 GRACEANDMERCY 1.3% 78.74 12
14 12 HELLO DADDY 0.9% 112.59 9
HAPPY FUNUNCLE STEVESTAR PERFORMANCESTAR SHINEJOYFUL UNIONTORNADO TWISTLOBO'S LEGENDMORETHANLUCKYDRAGON GENERAL — wonRACING FIGHTERTURIN REDSTARKYRUS UNICORNGRACEANDMERCYHELLO DADDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 308.5

PLACE

4 13.5

7 66.5

11 28.5

QUINELLA

4,7 366.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 127

4,11 55

7,11 339.5

TIERCE

7,4,11 7,162

TRIO

4,7,11 873

FIRST 4

4,7,11,13 1,302

QUARTET

7,4,11,13 46,367

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 38.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,14/4,7,11 23,105

9TH DOUBLE

14/4 10.5

14/7 396.5

SIX UP

1,7/1,2/1,7/3,4/2,14/4,7 854

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

3/14/4 272

3/14/7 10,198