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Sha Tin · 2020-02-16

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WELLINGTON, ridden by A Badel and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with BALLISTIC KING second and BE READY third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 WELLINGTON 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · R Gibson 13 1.6 N
2 2 BALLISTIC KING C Schofield · K H Ting 1 9.7 N
3 5 BE READY CP-/B1 Z Purton · F C Lor 8 9.3 1-1/4
4 6 SUPER WISE H-/P2/TT K H Chan · K L Man 4 42.0 2
5 11 BEAUTY ICON B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 11 57.0 4
6 7 HALL OF CHAMP J Spencer · D J Hall 3 27.0 4-1/2
7 13 FLYING BONUS C Y Ho · C H Yip 12 24.0 5
8 4 WIND N GRASS G van Niekerk · J Size 7 29.0 5
9 12 LARSON CP L Hewitson · J Moore 10 131.0 5-1/4
10 1 HARMONY SPIRIT XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 14 59.0 5-1/4
11 10 MARVEL DRAGON TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 307.0 6-1/4
12 9 ISLAND SHINE K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 14.0 8-1/4
13 8 EVEN KEEL H/TT M F Poon · L Ho 6 278.0 11-1/2
14 3 LOCKHEED B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 9 7.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WELLINGTON2. BALLISTIC KING+0.05L3. BE READY+1.25L4. SUPER WISE+2L5. BEAUTY ICON+4L6. HALL OF CHAMP+4.5L7. FLYING BONUS+5L8. WIND N GRASS+5L9. LARSON+5.25L10. HARMONY SPIRIT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WELLINGTON (28.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 WELLINGTON 28.4% 3.52 1
2 5 BE READY 16.8% 5.96 3
3 3 LOCKHEED 13.6% 7.38 14
4 2 BALLISTIC KING 11.2% 8.90 2
5 1 HARMONY SPIRIT 7.4% 13.58 10
6 13 FLYING BONUS 4.8% 20.98 7
7 9 ISLAND SHINE 3.8% 26.58 12
8 7 HALL OF CHAMP 3.6% 28.14 6
9 11 BEAUTY ICON 2.9% 35.00 5
10 12 LARSON 2.7% 36.44 9
11 4 WIND N GRASS 2.5% 39.58 8
12 6 SUPER WISE 0.9% 105.49 4
13 8 EVEN KEEL 0.8% 125.41 13
14 10 MARVEL DRAGON 0.7% 142.05 11
WELLINGTON — wonBE READYLOCKHEEDBALLISTIC KINGHARMONY SPIRITFLYING BONUSISLAND SHINEHALL OF CHAMPBEAUTY ICONLARSONWIND N GRASSSUPER WISEEVEN KEELMARVEL DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 16.5

PLACE

2 20.5

5 24

14 12.5

QUINELLA

2,14 73.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 80.5

2,14 31.5

5,14 33

TIERCE

14,2,5 515

TRIO

2,5,14 149

FIRST 4

2,5,6,14 924

QUARTET

14,2,5,6 5,376

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 15

A3

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

3/2 253.5

3/14 355.5