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Sha Tin · 2020-02-16

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.10.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT 1.10.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · W Y So 12 18.0 1-1/4
2 0 VALIANT DREAM B Shinn · K W Lui 6 6.6 1-1/4
3 0 SNAP FIT B/TT Z Purton · C Fownes 1 4.6 1-3/4
4 0 FANTASY B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 8 2.4 2
5 0 GRADE ONE B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 4 5.9 2
6 0 TOYCOON XB1 H W Lai · P F Yiu 3 96.0 4-1/2
7 0 HONEST WAY B1 N Callan · D E Ferraris 14 38.0 5-1/2
8 0 MONKEY JEWELLERY G van Niekerk · J Size 5 22.0 6
9 0 ELIGERE CP-/B1 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 10 126.0 6
10 0 AMAZING KIWI XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 17.0 6-3/4
11 0 SOLOMON'S BAY CP/XB C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 41.0 7
12 0 KUNG FU FIGHTER M F Poon · D J Hall 11 39.0 7-1/2
13 0 AFRICAN SKY TT K C Leung · K H Ting 13 448.0 8
14 0 NUREMBERG B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 9 259.0 13

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TEAM SPIRIT, ridden by T Piccone and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with VALIANT DREAM second and SNAP FIT third. The 2.4 favourite FANTASY finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEAM SPIRIT—2. VALIANT DREAM+1.25L3. SNAP FIT+1.75L4. FANTASY+2L5. GRADE ONE+2L6. TOYCOON+4.5L7. HONEST WAY+5.5L8. MONKEY JEWELLERY+6L9. ELIGERE+6L10. AMAZING KIWI+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FANTASY (29.1%) finished 4th — the winner TEAM SPIRIT was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FANTASY 29.1% 3.44 4
2 0 SNAP FIT 26.1% 3.84 3
3 0 VALIANT DREAM 14.7% 6.80 2
4 0 AMAZING KIWI 6.7% 14.98 10
5 0 KUNG FU FIGHTER 4.7% 21.41 12
6 0 MONKEY JEWELLERY 4.4% 22.52 8
7 0 TEAM SPIRIT 3.1% 32.29 1
8 0 HONEST WAY 2.7% 36.66 7
9 0 GRADE ONE 2.7% 36.74 5
10 0 SOLOMON'S BAY 2.3% 42.73 11
11 0 TOYCOON 1.6% 63.68 6
12 0 ELIGERE 0.7% 133.41 9
13 0 NUREMBERG 0.6% 170.72 14
14 0 AFRICAN SKY 0.5% 187.04 13
FANTASYSNAP FITVALIANT DREAMAMAZING KIWIKUNG FU FIGHTERMONKEY JEWELLERYTEAM SPIRIT — wonHONEST WAYGRADE ONESOLOMON'S BAYTOYCOONELIGERENUREMBERGAFRICAN SKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 188.5

PLACE

1 16

3 42.5

4 22.5

QUINELLA

3,4 636

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 113.5

1,4 45.5

3,4 158

TIERCE

3,4,1 5,170

TRIO

1,3,4 615

FIRST 4

1,3,4,13 266

QUARTET

3,4,1,13 10,350

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 43.5

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/3 237

1/4 19.5